7. Buy Any Time, Don’t Wait

7. Buy Any Time, Don’t Wait

Any time is the right time to buy; any time is the wrong time to sell.

“Buy when you have money, hold long-term, hold to death.” This is the most central sentence of CLEC investing philosophy — but most people fall at the first step, “buy when you have money.” They always think today’s price is too high and want to wait for a lower price. The wait has only two outcomes: either you wait forever as the market climbs higher; or you finally buy on a dip and the market keeps falling, at which point you start doubting whether you were wrong again.

Red Dots vs. Green Dots

CLEC lectures have a “red dots vs. green dots” chart:

• Red-dot investor — “buy whenever I have money”: whenever investable cash arrives, they buy immediately, regardless of where the market is.
• Green-dot investor — “wait for the low”: every entry is precisely timed at a market pullback low. Intuitively you’d guess green dots do better. The reality is the opposite. Long-term, red dots’ cumulative returns are usually higher than green dots’. The reason is simple: the market is in an uptrend roughly 70% of the time, and in a pullback or downtrend only 30%. When you “wait for the low,” your money is idle, not participating in the rise. In a multi-year bull run, the red-dot’s money has been compounding from day one; the green-dot’s money is parked in the bank waiting for a pullback. Even when the pullback finally comes, the price green dots buy at is often higher than where red dots bought in the early bull. The cost of waiting far exceeds the small price difference you imagine you’re saving.

The 2023 Hard Evidence

From January through June 2023, QQQ rose almost every month, repeatedly making new highs. Many people were waiting for a pullback — and for three or four straight months there was not a single day where the close was lower than the previous day’s. October finally produced a correction; many people excitedly thought “the low has finally arrived.” Compare the numbers though: the buy-in price after the October correction was higher than the price on any random day from January through June. Those who said “too high, wait” missed half a year’s rally and ended up paying more than the “buy with your eyes closed” investor. Academic finance has long converged on the same conclusion: Eugene Fama’s efficient- market hypothesis and John Bogle’s empirical research both arrive at the same point — market timing is not only useless, it is harmful. The returns investors give up by timing far exceed the returns they gain by timing.

Don’t Buy on the Way Up, Don’t Buy on the Way Down

The deeper psychological mechanism is this: when the market is up, people think it’s “too high” and wait; when the market is down, people think “it’ll fall more” and wait. Don’t buy

when it’s up, don’t buy when it’s down, don’t buy at highs, don’t buy at lows — the result is never buy. In investing, your worst enemy is usually your own nature. The solution is dead simple: don’t judge highs or lows, buy when you have money, execute immediately. Looking back 30 years, the difference between buying at 315 vs. 350 is trivial; but the difference between “bought at 315” and “couldn’t decide at 350 and didn’t buy at all” — the wealth gap between those two people 30 years later is enormous.

Lump Sum or Dollar-Cost? Press One Market-Order Button

The other question students ask the most is: “Teacher, should I put all the money in at once or spread it out over time?” In CLEC’s framework, the answer is very simple: after you’ve decided your asset allocation (see §22 and §26), press one market-order button. Don’t spread it out anymore. The reason is exactly the same as “red dots vs. green dots” — spreading it out means leaving part of your money on the sidelines waiting, and the “perfect timing” you wait for, statistically, does not exist. The market is in uptrend roughly 70% of the time; the cost of waiting far exceeds the price difference you think you’re saving. The only exception: if you haven’t thought through your allocation ratio (how much QQQ, how much cash), stop and think it through; don’t rush to buy. But once the ratio is set — lump-sum, market order, all in. The rest, give to time.

Key Points

One, “red dots vs. green dots” statistical comparison: long-term, “buy whenever I have money” beats “wait for the low” in cumulative return. Reason: the market is in uptrend ~70% of the time; the cost of idle capital during waiting far exceeds the price savings of timing. Two, all rigorous academic research confirms: there is no reliable method for predicting short-term market direction. Market timing is not only useless, it is harmful. 2023 case: those who waited because “too high” ended up buying higher than anyone who bought at random earlier in the year. Three, “don’t buy on the way up, don’t buy on the way down” is a product of human nature, not rational judgment. Don’t judge — buy immediately. Thirty years later, tiny differences in entry price get completely erased by compounding; the real loss is the compounding time you missed because you hesitated. Four, lump-sum vs. dollar-cost: once allocation is set, press one market-order and be done. Don’t spread it out anymore. Spreading it out is leaving cash on the sidelines, and in a 70%-uptrend market the cost is bigger than any timing benefit.