QQQ + 2x QLD + cash: pick a strategy and an entry point, and see how your portfolio survives 25 years — and whether it blows up.
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How results are computed & where they differ from the source
The tool steps month by month: update market values, accrue interest, (optionally) contribute, rebalance yearly, (optionally) withdraw living expenses, and check for margin liquidation. Below are the key conventions and every place we differ from the CLEC source spreadsheet — stated plainly so you know where the numbers come from.
Core engine validated: all 5 strategies match the CLEC reference implementation byte-for-byte on the same data (0.000% error); the three DCA calculators were also independently re-derived and matched.
QQQ basis: price only (no dividend reinvestment), matching the source. (Note: the DCA calculator uses total return instead — a different basis.)
QLD is synthetic: derived as 2x the QQQ monthly return, not real QLD quotes; it runs ~10% below the source's QLD series, so QLD-heavy absolute figures are conservative.
Valuation uses each month's LOW (conservative), so drawdowns read deeper than a close-based view — intentional, closer to real risk.
Living-expense withdrawal differs from the source: the source books expenses as a near-costless ledger; we make spent money actually reduce wealth (cash can go into deficit) — more realistic and it shows retirement sequence risk, but absolute values fall below the source (e.g. profile 1 spending 2%: ~2.85M vs source ~4.1M). With no spending the two agree (~4.2M).
Rebalance timing: yearly-rebalance in January, profit-harvesting in December (matches the reference).
Leverage: pledge ratios QQQ 70% / cash 96%; LTV = debt ÷ pledgeable credit, liquidated past your set line. This differs slightly from the source's coverage-ratio convention; treat the leverage view as illustrative.
Default entry is March 2000 (the dot-com top), the worst-case start, to show how strategies diverge even with the worst luck. Data spans 1999–2026.
How to use · Asset Allocation Simulator
A stress-test tool: assume you invest a lump sum at some point in history and run QQQ + 2x QLD + cash strategies for a decade or two — see which survives and which blows up.
① Pick an investor-profile preset, or set your own capital, weights and withdrawal.
② Choose a rebalance strategy and entry point (default = the 2000 bubble top = worst luck).
③ Read the cards: final net worth, lowest net worth (drawdown trough), returns, and whether it liquidated.
④ Want retire-on-margin? Enable pledge borrowing under Advanced and watch the LTV / liquidation alert.
The five rebalance strategies
Buy & Hold (no rebalance)：Buy the target mix once, then hold — no rebalancing.
Yearly Rebalance：Reset the portfolio to your target weights every year-end.
Smart Adjust：Bull years (QLD profit > 0): sell 1/3 of profit to cash. Bear years: buy 2% of value in QLD dips with cash.
Flexible · Defensive：Build an N-year cash buffer first; when short, play defense (harvest in bulls, rotate QQQ→QLD in bears); once adequate, switch to Smart.
Flexible · Aggressive：Same defense when cash is short; once adequate, play offense — reinvest profit into QQQ instead of cash.
What the metrics mean
CAGR：CAGR: the compound annual growth rate — total growth as an average % per year (based on capital in). A quick read on long-run annual return.
Money-weighted IRR：Money-weighted IRR: the true annualized return accounting for when each dollar was added or withdrawn. More accurate than CAGR when you contribute or spend.
Max drawdown：Max drawdown: the largest peak-to-trough drop (%) over the period. How deep a paper loss you'd need to stomach.
Worst year：Worst year: the return of the single worst calendar year. How painful one bad year can get.
Sharpe ratio：Sharpe ratio: excess return earned per unit of volatility risk. Higher is better; above 1 is generally good.
Calmar ratio：Calmar ratio: annual return ÷ max drawdown — reward vs. worst pain. Higher is better.
Ulcer index：Ulcer index: a 'pain' measure combining the depth AND duration of drawdowns. Lower means a smoother ride.
Peak LTV：Peak LTV: the highest ratio of debt ÷ pledgeable credit over the period. How stretched the margin loan got against collateral — the closer to your liquidation line, the riskier (leverage only).
For education and scenario modeling only, not investment advice. QLD is synthesized as 2x the QQQ monthly return, not real QLD quotes; valuation uses monthly lows (conservative), so drawdowns read deeper than a close-based view. Leverage magnifies losses; past performance does not predict the future.