[You don't buy when it rises, you don't buy when it falls, when will you buy!]

[Don't buy when it rises, don't buy when it falls, when will you buy!] Casual Investment Talk CLEC Investment and Financial Education Academy Blog Post Date: February 26, 2022

Today is February 25, 2022, the third day of the Soviet invasion of Ukraine (everyone must remember, there is a saying in the market: 'When gunfire sounds, think of gold'), and the market continued yesterday's rise, with QQQ up by 1.5%. I know that many people say, when the market is rising, 'I will buy when it falls; now it's too high.' When the QQQ has already dropped 20% to $318.26, and you still insist on not buying, what exactly are you holding out for? You may not be able to buy at the lowest point, but you can always buy at yesterday's closing high of $340 (if you only see the market when you're about to leave work) or around today's opening price of $341.31 (remember, when buying or selling stocks, always use the market price. You need to be able to buy and sell to complete a transaction). But too many investors just can't do this, thinking the low point will be even lower. Everyone must remember one thing: trying to buy at the lowest point is a fool's dream. If you haven't been able to buy in large quantities over the past two days, then you need more practice in the market. Of course, those who have already bought in completely can only happily watch the fluctuations, thinking about the $4000 QQQ in 10 or 20 years, which makes them happy just thinking about it.

Just yesterday, some people, after I finished writing the article 'The Market's Ghostly Battles and the Monkey's Predictions,' were worried that some friends who switch stocks might only follow instructions halfway, taking only half of the suggested actions (for a stock switch to succeed, buying and selling or selling and buying both need to be fully executed to be considered correct. Otherwise, it's even more dangerous than not acting at all). These people who followed instructions halfway and only took half of the actions still had a lot of cash on hand. I was concerned, so I specifically notified them to quickly buy in. Personally, I suggested yesterday via Line or Clubhouse's direct messaging that they rush to invest all their cash. (These friends, because they followed my advice to sell individual stocks but did not immediately switch to index funds—this is what I call people who are too self-centered, 'The reason I have significant mistakes is because I have a self.') When the market has already dropped this low, if you still don't hurry to buy, then when will you? Many people think I am being wise after the fact, but actually, there is no need to guess or rely on any complicated technical analysis. The market has already given you a 20% discount; of course, you buy with your eyes closed. How else could you hesitate?

This is actually just common sense. When you are in a department store, you might not buy something when it's not on sale. You might wait until Christmas or Black Friday when there is a 20% discount. If you still don't buy it, then when will you? You have this kind of common sense in shopping, but you surprisingly forget it when it comes to investing. This kind of person has a natural instinct to be cheap.

For those who still have cash, I will tell you one last time: you only have one option, which is to buy in at the market price tomorrow (all in). There is no other way. If you don't do it, you will never be able to enter the market. The train has started moving, so why are you still suffering on the platform waiting?

So what I want to tell everyone here is, remember, remember, absolutely remember, the market is already discounted. When the market goes down, it's like a gift falling from the sky. You shouldn’t worry about whether the market will drop further (you’re not God, but it’s best not to act like a monkey). Buying when there’s a discount is a blessing; not buying is a loss. Don’t listen to all those demons and monsters outside, or any technical analysis. I tell you, none of that is useful. Did listening to monkeys analyze help you? Investing can be done simply with common sense. A downturn, a discount, is the best buying opportunity. What more hesitation do you have? I tell everyone, the low point this time may already be over. If you still have cash now and don’t hurry to buy, you might find that in the future, what you buy will only get more expensive.

You might still be very stubborn, thinking that what I say may not necessarily be correct, that the market could still go down further, that there could be an even lower point, and that you still want to wait. Does it make sense to gamble with me on this? If you buy now but the market still hits a lower point, and you didn’t buy, that’s just your fate. Everyone has their fate. The price has already dropped; if you don’t buy, your fate is already better than those who bought at $408 before. And you want an even better fate (I often say that life is better if you go along with your destiny; if you have cash, that is your cash fate; whenever you have money, that’s when you buy. That’s going along with and following your destiny). In the end, the market could rebound to 500, and you still won’t be able to buy. Does such stubbornness benefit you? I’ve seen too many failures like that. I’ve also seen too many monkeys criticizing in hindsight.

Nowadays, holding cash is very dangerous. Sometimes, when the market rises, it never comes back, just like what happened a few years ago. Some people bought QQQ at $200, which might have been the market's highest point at the time. After buying, the market fell, and no matter how much it drops now, it will never go back to $200. People who bought at $200 back then thought it was the peak, but looking back now, those who bought at $200 were the luckiest. Although the market has already fallen to $325, everyone is still hesitant. Even yesterday, I specifically told a few friends to quickly buy at the market price. I don't even know if they took action. The difficulty in investing lies in not being able to act. I directly named them in messages, telling them that holding cash is very dangerous and that they must buy immediately, yet they may still fail to act. For other friends who just received my emails in the past few days or saw my articles online, it’s even less likely they would have the courage to buy stocks at the low point.

Everyone should know that usually in a bull market (the market is currently a bull market, it is a bull market, don’t doubt it. I haven’t seen any bearish environment), I have never seen any technical peaks in a bull market. All external factors are temporary, and any decline will quickly rebound (that’s what a bull market is). In the past, when I looked at the market using technical analysis, rushing in and out was useless. Usually, you would end up selling at the lowest point after a peak, and then the market would start to rebound, just like now. On February 23, 2022, the market broke below the neckline. Surely, there were many technical analysts who were very bearish. Many investors, like frightened birds, sold their stocks. In the end, they were only correct for half a day. The next day, the market opened lower, they were thrilled thinking they were gods, but the market closed at the highest point. A monkey is still a monkey; those who only acted for half a day eventually returned to their original state.

Through the passage of time and experience, I have come to realize that this kind of technical breakdown in a bull market is actually a low-point buying signal—what some call breaking the bottom and piercing the top. (In fact, people shouldn’t overestimate technical analysis; some can see it but can’t act on it. They usually say, 'I saw it coming early,' but they didn’t trade. Most technical analysts talk a good game about investing, but their actions are still inconclusive. Usually, if you tell them this, they won’t admit it. It’s like telling a monkey that it’s a monkey, not a human; the monkey won’t believe it and might even think it’s a stock market god.) In a bull market, what appears to be a top often turns into a bottom, looking flat from above but forming peaks from the side. Although I personally am fully invested in the market, I still advise those I know who have a lot of cash to hurry and buy immediately yesterday. Therefore, you first need to know whether the external environment is bullish or bearish; other technical analyses are useless. In a bull market, discounts are gifts falling from the sky. (To really know if it’s a bull market, you need more than 30 years of investment experience. Even I may not see the whole picture of the market, but I’m always a bit better off than those inexperienced ‘monkey novices.’) Only after seeing spring, summer, autumn, and winter do you realize that the Earth has four seasons; only after a full sixty-year cycle do you understand the experiences of birth, aging, sickness, death, joy, sorrow, and separation in life.

Many ants don’t survive until dawn; he has no idea what daytime is like and thinks the world is only darkness, just like those monkeys in the market telling ghost stories, who have never seen the entire market cycle and are blindly feeling around, calling themselves stock gods. Therefore, even if a large M-top or a head-and-shoulders top forms in a bull market, and even if it breaks the neckline, that is the best buying point, not what those technical analysis monsters claim, that the bears are coming. We don’t know how much further the market will fall, but if it has already dropped 20% from the peak and you still don’t buy, then when will you buy? If you don’t even have this common sense, then you need to think about what kind of person you are (are you like those monsters, a gorilla? Or a monkey!).