Chapter 15 [If I hadn’t avoided the bubble twice, I might have been richer]

Source: https://www.facebook.com/100063294665283/posts/530438432409308/

[James Origin and Today] Chapter 15 - If I hadn’t avoided the bubble twice, I might be richer (02/14/2023)

Everyone will definitely think that my current wealth is due to avoiding two bubbles. In fact, I have to be honest with you. I was able to avoid these two bubbles because of pure luck. There is absolutely no so-called technical ability or basic analysis ability. It is completely luck!

I often say that short-term operators are like a broken clock, which is accurate twice a day, and there are only a few broken clocks that are accurate twice a day. Usually, although many short-term operators are occasionally correct in small places, most of them take advantage of the opportunity when there is a big rise. If they had not escaped the bubbles in 2008 and 2000, they would have been almost on the verge of bankruptcy. Therefore, as a broken clock back then, I was lucky to have taken two important opportunities to avoid bubbles, otherwise I would still be working as a laborer now. Therefore, long-term investment relies on long-term returns. Short-term operators think they can make money by avoiding accidents, but in the end they cannot avoid accidents and die.

Everyone needs to know that just because I was able to avoid these two bubbles does not mean that I left the market only for these two times. In fact, in addition to these two times of leaving the market to avoid the bubbles, I made more than twenty mistakes and left the market. Assuming that each of these twenty mistakes resulted in a loss of 10%, then my loss reached 88%, leaving only $120,000 out of $1 million. This is what I call if I didn't hide from the bubble, I would make more.

So I want to tell you that if the same thing happens again in the future, I may not be so lucky to be able to avoid risks, because all people who can avoid risks will be called stock gods at the beginning, but their performance will be mediocre later, so stock gods cannot be forever. Except for Buffett (who doesn’t predict the market at all and only has long-term investments).

Therefore, ordinary short-term operators make dozens of wrong moves and lose opportunities to make profits, which will lead to bankruptcy and no money to pay taxes. The reason why ordinary speculators go bankrupt is definitely not caused by the market, but by short-term operations that cause speculators to go bankrupt.

So I say if you want to go bankrupt, then keep operating. Operation is a sin. As long as you hold the index fund for a long time and never sell it, you will not suffer losses for more than 15 years. Your annualized return rate for more than 25 years will be 12%, which is enough to make your lifetime assets reach at least 100 million.