Chapter 26 [Watching the market fight with itself and predictions from monkeys]

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[James: Origins and Today] Chapter 26 - Watching the market fight with itself and predictions from monkeys (04/18/2023)

On February 24, 2022, U.S. stock futures and pre-market stocks fell sharply before the opening. The index fell 3.x% before the opening, and Tesla fell more than 7%. It can be seen from this that the market has reached extreme panic, and many unconfident investors will rush out at the opening. His holdings were caused by the fear of the market. QQQ opened down $10.58, a drop of 3.2%. After extreme fear of selling, QQQ closed up 3.36% to $340.49, fluctuating up to 6.5 %. Investors must remember here not to follow market fear. When you sell your holdings when the market is most fearful, you will be a loser in your investment. Also, before the market opened yesterday, many so-called stock market gurus claiming to be experts were talking loudly on Clubhouse, giving various reasons to predict the market and making strange suggestions. For example, stop loss, exit first, option protection, etc., just like the advice of the monkey who survived the loss of copper coins, it sounds very reasonable, just like when we go hiking, experts recommend that we should be prepared, if we see a bear, we should run, if we encounter danger, we should retreat, etc. These seemingly correct actions in human nature are actually true and real mistakes in investment.

The United States and the G7 have adopted the most severe sanctions against Soviet Russia, including blocking and sanctioning the five major Soviet banks and freezing all Soviet funds in the United States. The United Kingdom followed the United States in sanctioning Soviet Russia, and the United States fully imposed sanctions on Russia. Except for aluminum, which accounted for 10% of Soviet imports, this was the only product that the United States did not sanction. Industry, whether the world's sanctions against Soviet Russia will be effective in the future or the future evolution of Soviet Russia is worthy of everyone's attention. The future changes in world politics and finance will be huge. The Eastern and Western power groups will confront each other and blockade the Soviet Union. The final result will be the largest experimental field for mankind.

Here is an aside. Because of my business relationship with Acer, I was lucky enough to go on a business trip to the Soviet Union in 1989, before the Soviet government collapsed (it was a very confidential matter at the time). The Moscow International Hotel in the Soviet Union was surrounded by KGB (Soviet State Security Council, equivalent to the FBI in the United States). The company helped me apply for a Soviet visa through a Japanese trading company and enter the Soviet Union. This was a completely closed country. The Soviet Union was indeed extremely backward at that time. When the plane landed at the airport, it was dark when entering the airport hall. A staff member who should be a customs officer came and turned on the lights. This means that the country's personnel and the number of immigrants are extremely scarce and scarce.

But what impressed me deeply was the subway in the Soviet Union. The subway in the Soviet Union was built more than 50 meters underground to prevent bomb attacks. If you take the elevator from above and look down, you can only see a light spot under the MRT. It takes two or three sections of elevators. You can reach the MRT station platform. The entire MRT station is very magnificent. You can imagine how powerful the Soviet Union was at that time. All the subway walls are painted and magnificent. However, when I picked up the camera to take pictures, I was stopped by the security personnel next to me.

In addition, the Soviet Union’s national power was not as strong as before, and not everyone could own a car. If you wanted to buy a car, you had to register it first. It is said that it would take more than ten years for your turn, so even if you were rich, you would not be able to buy a car. It would take more than ten years from registration to getting the car.

At that time, a colleague from a Japanese trading company gave me a calendar and a few playing cards that looked like a calendar. One side of the playing card calendar had a calendar and the other side had pictures of beautiful women. The people from the Japanese trading company told me that you can just use this to give to the driver when you return to the hotel. I was not sure. That night, I called a taxi back to the hotel and gave him the calendar in lieu of the fare. The taxi driver happily accepted. The next day, people from the Japanese trading company asked me how I was doing, and I said fine. I gave him a calendar and he actually accepted it. My friend from the Japanese trading company told me that actually you don’t need to give that much, you just need to give me playing cards for the calendar. This surprised me very much, because at that time the Soviet Union was under printing control, so a calendar was very valuable. This was another very special experience.

In fact, Soviet cities were very clean at that time. I saw a very magnificent building in Moscow, which was very impressive. It was the Ukrainian government building in Moscow at that time. This is like the offices of various provinces in Beijing. Therefore, Ukraine was the largest federation during the Soviet period, so why did Putin say that Ukraine only existed because of Soviet Russia. In other words, if Soviet Russia does not have Ukraine, it is as if it does not have its own spirit, just as China has lost Beijing. Therefore, from the perspective of Putin, who is such a patriotic KGB leader, he absolutely cannot tolerate Westernization of Ukraine.

When I entered the Ministry of Agriculture of the Soviet Union for a meeting, there was no toilet paper when I went to the toilet. There were only pieces of horse manure paper cut with scissors. Toilet paper was only available in international hotels. There are queues for all shopping, not because there are too many people shopping, but because the employees inside are civil servants. There are three employees, so only three customers can enter the store at a time. This is the reason for the queues. All shops and department stores have no signboards or neon lights. If you are not a local, you have no idea what is inside this building. All offices, department stores and restaurants have the same appearance, and there are absolutely no signs outside. If you are a tourist and not a local, you have no idea what is inside this city.

At that time, trade was conducted through Japanese trading companies selling things to the Soviet Union. Japanese trading companies bartered with the Soviet Union. For example, Japanese trading companies sold Soviet government computers in exchange for iron ore or aluminum or mining rights. At that time, only Japanese trading companies could conduct global trade of various commodities and sell Soviet minerals and commodities to the world. Trade in the form of barter, these are the so-called Soviet trade under the world economic blockade.

I remember that I went to the bank to exchange US dollars for rubles, the currency of the Soviet Union, and one US dollar was exchanged for 0.85 rubles. But on the black market, I could exchange one US dollar for $8 rubles. The difference was nearly 100 times. Many people in the Soviet Union had to exchange US dollars on the black market to buy imported goods. I remember that I saw an artist's painting on the roadside. I wanted to pay him rubles, and he asked me in a low voice if I had any U.S. dollars. This shows how popular U.S. dollars were at that time. Of course, the current blockade of Soviet Russia may still cause a huge blow to Soviet Russia. We should be able to see in our lifetime what kind of outcome and consequences such comprehensive sanctions will have on the Soviet Union in the long run.