Chapter 75 [Investment Questions and Answers Part 2]

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[James’ Origin and Today] Chapter 75 - [Investment Q&A Part 2] (10/18/2023)

8. I heard the teacher mentioned the cycle in the latest issue, because I don’t know when it is an opportunity and when it is a risk. In addition to my previous experience, the judgment of the previous day is different from the opening trend of the day. That is, the judgment can be wrong, so I dare not judge the stock market trend any more. Can I win the world by buying 00662 by killing it and not selling it? Or is it better to learn the cycle?

In fact, I seem to only know how to buy when I have the money and not sell until I die. Teacher, you often talk about rebalancing in your videos.

I don’t quite understand how to do rebalancing. It refers to the sum of the total assets on hand at the end of each year after deducting emergency reserves. If stocks account for 100%, should we sell 10~20% first to retain cash?

"James: If you don't understand, just buy it if you have the money. It's best not to sell it until you die. This is the best way to invest."

Buy as long as you have the money, ignore the market, and never sell! If you can do it, it’s already 100 points, no problem! 』

9. I heard that you have learned Ziwei Dou Shu, because a fortune teller with telepathy told me before that I should not invest before I am 50 years old. How much should the teacher believe in this part of numerology? I am very conflicted now. Should I accept my fate and be poor, or should I take control of my own destiny from now on and start investing to reverse my destiny?

『James: Your numerology teacher must be a charlatan, ignore him. Usually fortune telling is harmful to people, just like financial planners, they want your money! 』

Okay, thank you teacher, because I have lost money buying stocks before, so I felt that what the fortune teller said seemed to be accurate, and I didn’t buy it again after that. 』

『James：

When asking about marriage, fortune tellers will tell you that there is no "fate"

If you ask about investing, fortune tellers will always say "no luck"

If you ask about the relationship between children, fortune tellers will say "mutual conflict"

If you ask about your job, fortune tellers will say "unstable"

If you ask about the relationship between husband and wife, fortune tellers will say "Definitely divorce"

Even if you ask a fortune teller, there will be no good outcome. This is just an ordinary charlatan. Otherwise, you will need more money, and the fortune teller will help you resolve it (first solution, second solution, and then again, until you run out of money). 』

11. At 11 minutes into episode 391, I don’t quite understand. You said that if a person has 500,000, he should first invest 100,000, and if the market rises, then continue to invest 400,000. This is wrong. If you can buy it at any time as the teacher said, and you will not sell until you die, then what is the reason for this wrong? Even if you chase the high, you can continue to let it go and wait for it to rise again, right?

"James: For many people, they don't like losing money, and they can't bear the loss of large amounts of money. Because that friend is relatively old and has no investment experience, so he plays it slow and divides the funds into five parts. Invest one part at a time. If you make money, invest in the second part until the investment is finished." In this way, relatively inexperienced friends can withstand market fluctuations. 』

You mean, this example is telling us that it is less applicable to people who have less investment experience or who are less able to withstand the high volatility of the market, right? Then I may not have heard clearly, because I want to say why this is wrong. Even if it is chasing highs, don't you just insist on not selling until it rises?

『James: To make money, it is better to enter the market more and give it to people who will be affected by the market. Once all in, the market will fall and you will not be able to bear it, and you will listen to the ghost stories from outside. In the end, you may die on the floor and sell at the lowest point. 』

12. After watching the teacher’s video, my current plan is to use all the cash on hand, after deducting the emergency reserve fund, to buy 00662. After that, I will also buy one 00662 every month for my monthly salary. Is this okay, teacher? Or should I buy 0050 or 0056 with interest every month for my monthly salary? I ask this because my idea is that if I need money in 20 years, if 00662 in my hand is still in a loss at that time, then I will be forced to sell the stock. But if I allocate funds to buy stocks with dividends such as 0050 or 0056 in the past 20 years, then I can at least use the dividends. Is this idea correct? In addition, If I buy a 00662 every month for my monthly salary in the future, and if the market continues to rise in the past few years, won’t my costs gradually be increased? If it starts to fall later, will it eat up the previous low-cost profits, so based on the average price, I still haven't made any money, or should I save my monthly salary and wait until 00662 drops below my cost, then use the cash I have to buy more to reduce my cost?

『James: I have been investing in U.S. stocks for 20 years and have never suffered a loss in history. You should first divide your existing funds into three parts, invest one part immediately, and then invest another part after making a profit of 15% (for example, when one million rises to 1.5 million). At this time, your capital will be 2.15 million. If it rises by another 15%, it will be around $2.47 million before investing the last part. 』

Question: I don’t quite understand this method. My question is, if I wait until I make 15%, then I invest another amount of money, isn’t it just chasing the high? Then if it drops, will my original 15% profit be reduced to 10% or even less because the average price becomes higher? I originally thought I had to wait until I lose 15%, then increase the amount. If I lose another 15%, increase the amount until all three funds are invested, then turn off the phone and go to sleep. Hahaha, teacher, what is the difference between these two methods?

『James: People who are nervous about the ups and downs of the market feel more at ease when they make money and add more money because they won’t lose money.

Generally, beginners and investment friends who are prone to nervousness usually do not have the heart to add more money when the market falls (the ideal is very full, the reality is very skinny). Investors may be very confident at the beginning. You can try to add more money to see if you can do it. Usually if it falls by 10%, you can have courage, if it falls by 20%, you will shrink your holdings, and if it falls by 30%, you will regret it. Why did you start adding more money so early?

If you continue to increase your position, the market will continue to fall, and you will regret that it was too early!

If you buy it, it will go up. I regret not buying it all in!

All in fell, regretting that I was too impulsive!

If you buy, it will rise. If you sell quickly to lock in profits, the market will continue to rise sharply and you will have no choice but to hit the wall!

The world is not that ideal.

One way, which is effective for a lifetime, is not to sell! 』

Question: In addition, when I watched the teacher’s previous videos, he always recommended all-in, buy when you have money, and buy at market prices at any time. Why didn’t the teacher advise me in this way? Teacher, you also mentioned buying a fixed amount before, but you did not advise me in this way. Teacher, is it because you think that I am a newbie in stock market investment, and you are afraid that I will not be able to withstand the shock, so you suggest me in the way you mentioned above?

"James: Yes, from the conversation, you are still a novice in the stock market (it has nothing to do with investment experience, which is great. A person who has invested for decades is still a novice in the stock market). You are still a very timid investor, and you are an investor who believes in your own feelings and is easily affected by the market, so you must be steady and steady. 』

Question: Because I have already invested all my available funds to buy 00662 after watching your video. If I want to use the method suggested by the teacher above, that is, I have to wait until the current position rises by 15%, then I will terminate one savings insurance and invest all of it. When it rises by 15%, I will terminate another savings insurance and invest all of it, right? If you use this method, you don’t need to buy the monthly salary during this period, but save it all first?

"James: If you have already invested everything, then don't move. If you have money in the future, buy 00646. If you have money, buy it and don't sell it. Keep a savings insurance as an emergency fund. 』

Question: Teacher, I would like to ask, if you do not consider the size of the shock and only consider the rate of return, would you suggest that I only keep an emergency reserve fund, then directly terminate the two savings insurance contracts, and add all the existing funds in? I want to know all of them in, or follow the method you suggested above, which one may have a higher rate of return, because I am now 39 years old, and as time goes by, I am becoming more and more uneasy about money, and I am more and more afraid that the money I earn is not enough to support my retirement. After watching your video, I feel that I have invested more than ten years late, and I am afraid that I will run out of time, so I want to ask which rate of return may be the highest?

"James: No matter what method you use, you can do it. As long as you insist on one thing: "Fight to death, don't sell." No matter what method you use to buy, if you fight to the death and don't sell, even if the market drops by 50% next time. You still have to insist on not selling. 』

13. The teacher said that 00662 in Taiwan is equivalent to QQQ in the United States. How to calculate the value of the 00662 ETF?

『James: When you invest in ETFs, you don’t need to calculate the value. You are investing in the entire United States. 』

OK, got it

14. Personally, I feel that compared to US stocks, Taiwan stocks are more susceptible to manipulation. Will investing in 00662 also involve this risk?

"James: 00662 is linked to the US stock market QQQ. If QQQ cannot be controlled, then 00662 cannot be controlled either. 』

Question: Maybe I don’t quite understand how closely the rise and fall of 00662 is linked to QQQ. I originally thought it was an absolute positive correlation, but I once saw that the U.S. stock market Nasdaq closed down the night before, but the next morning the Taiwan stock market opened up and 00662 rose. So I wanted to ask, is it because 00662 is in Taiwan, it is more likely to be manipulated?

『James: 00662 and QQQ have a tracking relationship, but the error is caused by the exchange rate and tracking efficiency. Before the release of 00662, I did not recommend it to everyone because the tracking efficiency was not good. Nowadays, the transaction volume is large and the tracking efficiency is high, so it is very close to QQQ (except it is still affected by the exchange rate).

Tracking is based on long-term performance and does not guarantee the same rise and fall every day. If it guarantees the same rise and fall every day, 00662 will only have one price every day, which is the closing price of the US stock QQQ that day. (Taiwan stocks opened and U.S. stocks closed)』

"Final conclusion: I don't have any investment "magic lamp" that can make everyone rich overnight. The essence of all our investments is the following sentence: think, figure it out, do it, and you will be rich.

[Understand the risks, know the risks, control the risks, keep cash, have emergency reserves, buy index funds when you have money, buy them at any time, and never sell them. 】』