Blog

We have always said we are believers in Buffett's value investing, but our method is not investing in individual stocks, and we do not evaluate value. We simply buy whenever we have money. How can this be the same as Buffett's value investing? Buffett's value investing means buying when the stock price is far below value and considering selling when the stock price is far above value.

The Keynesian view: Keynes's basic idea was simple. To keep people fully employed, the government must run deficits during an economic slowdown, because private-sector investment is not enough to keep production at normal levels and pull the economy out of recession. Keynesian economists called on governments to make up the shortfall during economic crises by increasing government spending or cutting taxes.

Modern mainstream economists saw the causes: a reduction in the money supply, bank crises, reduced credit, and bankruptcy; insufficient private-sector demand and insufficient fiscal spending; the passage of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which worsened what might otherwise have been a more standard recession; and insufficient spending, reduced money supply, and margin debt, which led to falling prices and further bankruptcy.

The Great Depression was the largest economic depression in human history. The United States' GDP fell 15%, U.S. unemployment reached 23%, and unemployment in other countries reached as high as 33%. Agricultural product prices fell 60%. By mid-1930, interest rates had fallen to low levels, but expected deflation and people's continued reluctance to borrow meant that consumer spending and investment remained low.

Previously, in 2022, someone sold a house and asked me how to put the funds into the market. I suggested buying in batches, while still being optimistic about the whole market. But for many people who are not mentally ready, going all in is too strong an action. To help ordinary people avoid fearing the market, buying in batches may feel like a good method, but statistically its performance is not as good as lump-sum buying.

Many friends ask: James, you used to trade, and you traded quite well, avoiding the bubbles in 2000 and 2008. Why not avoid this one and instead face the market decline? Is that really a good approach? In fact, every strategy has strengths and weaknesses. If we want to help the general public invest successfully, we can only use a method that ordinary people can actually follow.