00480 August 17, 2024

Related Materials

• Previous presentation: 00479 August 10, 2024
• Next presentation: 00481 August 24, 2024

Document Text

Over the long run, the market only rises

Clubhouse: relaxed conversations about investing, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel, August 17, 2024

Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• International affairs have nothing to do with me!

• Market analysis has nothing to do with me!

• Financial statements have nothing to do with me!

• Economic conditions have nothing to do with me!

• None of it has anything to do with me!

• Ignore the noise and turbulence of the market!

Investing blindly without learning is dangerous

• Watch our videos and ask specific questions, including:

• The video number and the timestamp where the question came up.

• Asking questions after watching the video is the most effective way to learn.

CLEC has no discussion groups, and we have not authorized anyone to act on our behalf

• We cannot know the membership or purpose of any group, and such groups can easily be infiltrated by people with bad intentions.

The investments we mainly recommend are the Nasdaq 100 index fund QQQ and the corresponding local ETFs issued in each country

• Do not rely entirely on financial consultants, including Charles Schwab financial consultants. They can help with account opening, but we do not recommend fully adopting the ETFs or other financial products they suggest.

• Over the long term, the Nasdaq 100 index fund and the S&P 500 index fund have been among the best-performing investments. Outside of these, individual stocks, funds, and financial products usually do not help investment success and should be avoided.

We recommend investing 100% in a Nasdaq 100 index fund

• United States: We recommend buying QQQ, or QQQM for smaller accounts. Cash can be placed in money market fund SWVXX or short-term Treasury bill ETFs BIL and SGOV.

• Taiwan investors: We recommend Fubon NASDAQ 00662. Cash can be invested in CTBC U.S. Government 0-1 Year Bond ETF Fund (00864B.TW).

• China investors: We recommend 513100/513300/160213/159941/161130/159660.

• Hong Kong investors: You can choose HKD 3086, USD 9086, ETF 2834 (HKD), or 9834 (USD).

• Canada investors: We recommend converting to U.S. dollars and buying QQQ directly, or investing in Canadian-dollar products QQC.TO/ETF (HXQ.TO).

• Australia investors: We recommend buying NDQ.

• United Kingdom investors: We recommend the U.S.-dollar-denominated iShares VII Public Limited Company - iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF (CNDX.L). In Europe, we recommend EQQQ and CSPX.L.

• Brazil: The recently launched Nasdaq index fund is NASD11.

• Japan investors: You can choose 2568/1545/2631.

• Malaysia and Singapore investors: You can purchase U.S. QQQ through a Phillip Securities POEMS Cash Plus trading account.

• South Korea: The recommended QQQ ETFs are 368590.KS/133690.KS/367380.KS.

Since 2018, we have kept all videos on YouTube so everyone can learn investing in chronological order

• The videos reflect the market conditions and appropriate investment decisions at the time. As time changes, some strategies may no longer apply. They remain valuable learning resources.

• Viewers should interpret each video in the context of the market conditions at that time, and develop their own thinking and judgment.

• Our early investment recommendations included certain individual stocks and regular funds. Although they were good choices at the time, suitable investments must also account for personal risk tolerance and investment strategy.

Investors are always extremely optimistic!

Investors always face the sunshine!

The market will ultimately rise!

Investing requires patience!

Wealth is worth waiting for!

Subscribe, comment, like, forward, and share on Apple Podcasts. Remember to leave a five-star subscription so you can receive real-time market updates.

The market will keep rising forever; it only rises and never falls

Bro YaY

• I sincerely admire Teacher James. He teaches classes for free, holds seminars every week, and also responds to letters with customized answers to financial questions. This is something even fee-charging science colleges cannot do!

• James: @broyay4785 Thank you for your message and support. Finance is actually a kind of financial project. It seems that doctors cannot use one medicine to treat everyone in the world. Each person and each disease has a different prescription. The same goes for financial engineering. There is really no way to use one method for universal trial. Although we have some basic guidelines, you still need to customize it when you want to use it. Therefore, we still hope that everyone can watch our videos and understand them before making corrections according to their personal circumstances, instead of taking them without understanding at all. This is actually very risky.

• The solution I suggest to each friend may not be suitable for another person. Please do not take the solution I suggest to one person and use it directly. Sharing it with you is just for everyone to refer to the thinking logic of financial engineering. Just like don't take other people's medicine for yourself. What is a cure for others may be poison for you. Don't just prescribe medicine for others.

• Housing buildings in Hsinchu and Zhubei are really dense, but after visiting Shenzhen, I found it even scarier! The migrant population has been increasing, and housing prices have also been rising. As a result, everyone in the office is rushing to buy a house and get a car, for fear that it will be more expensive! But as the house ages, and we are still worried about earthquakes and fires, index funds are safer!

• James: @broyay4785 The asset of a house is a high-risk asset, and it is also a money-consuming asset. The longer you live in the house and the older it is, the more money you have to spend. In the United States, public management fees for buildings will continue to increase as your house gets older. This is because many projects that are expected to be repaired or replaced in 10 to 20 years will have additional budgets due to inflation. This will cause the entire management cost to continue to rise every year. In Asia, Taiwan and China, everyone hopes to collect a small amount of building management fees. Some residents are unwilling to pay, but the overall living quality cannot be maintained. In the end, the taller the entire building, the more dangerous it is. Think about it. If the elevator on the 2nd or 30th floor cannot be repaired, even if it takes 30 to 40 years to repair it, it will cost a lot of money. People who live in dangerous old buildings probably don’t have a lot of assets. It is not feasible to spend a lot of money to repair these old elevators. In the end, it may really become a dangerous building. This is the biggest risk to the house. In addition to being affordable, housing also comes with long-term maintenance and tax costs.

• The pendulum of investor sentiment reached the extreme of fear in 2022. After the market recovery in 2023, 2024 is still full of bearish remarks. Should this mean that the pendulum has not yet swung to extreme optimism? I listened to Howard Marks' audiobook and understood his investment philosophy, but I didn't seem to get a quantifiable basis for identifying cycles.

• James :

• It is impossible to quantify cycle identification. He also specifically mentioned in the book that it cannot be quantified, because if it could be quantified, human intervention would change the cycle, so the true cycle cannot be quantified.

• We don’t know where we will sail, but we know where we are in the cycle now, and we need to make corresponding asset allocations. It is difficult to predict the cycle during the entire pendulum process. "There are high and low points in the speed and direction of the pendulum." But when the pendulum reaches an extreme situation, investors should have more precise judgments and higher accuracy.

• It is difficult to distinguish between premature judgment and wrong judgment regarding the cycle. This is why it is not easy to invest based on the cycle. It may be more important not to do it than to do it wrong.

Job loss is a major risk for homebuyers and borrowers!

• Everyone should look at their own occupational security before deciding on a real estate loan.

• This is not something you need to consider only when investing in stocks!

• Many office workers take out high-value loans to buy houses, which is a very high risk. House risk is higher than stock index.

• Owning a house also worries about earthquakes, fires, floods, tree collapse, water leaks, termites, honeycombs, electrical appliances, and water pipes⋯⋯

• Although loans are invested in index funds, there is also a risk of unemployment! We will not sell stocks for a long time. There are no taxes or maintenance fees on stocks!

• Thanks for the teacher’s reminder. I was originally choosing between credit loans, housing loan increases and pledged stocks, hoping to obtain leveraged funds for investment.

• After repeatedly watching the teacher’s previous videos, I finally chose to use a long-term home loan. The main reason is that I have to worry about maintaining interest rates when pledging stocks. It is better to use a home loan. As long as the interest is paid every month, there is no need to worry about being liquidated.

• Although there are advantages to using stock pledged loans, on the surface it seems that as long as the stock value is sufficient, there is no need to repay the principal. However, due to the large changes in the value of the mortgaged items, once the maintenance ratio is insufficient, you may be forced to repay the principal at any time. In Taiwan, even if the maintenance ratio is higher than the suspension standard, if the maintenance ratio is lower than 167%, when the mortgage loan expires in one and a half years, there will be no way to borrow new money to repay the old one, which means you will still be forced to repay the principal.

• Although the stock market is doing well this year, many people hope to open leveraged investments, but I still agree with the teacher’s principle of borrowing and investing. If you can’t repay the loan, you should not repay it, and the repayment period should be as long as possible. However, stock pledged loan has the above problems. When the maintenance ratio is insufficient, you may be forced to repay the principal at any time. It is recommended to use it with caution.

Yes, your explanation and understanding are excellent!

• A big flaw with staking in Taiwan is that the maintenance ratio must be 167% before the contract can be renewed. If it is lower than 167%, you must repay before staking again. This is no different from being beheaded.

• Therefore, if Taiwanese friends want to pledge, they must use condition 3, 40% 00662;

30% 00670L; 30% 00864B.

• Moderate use is good for financial health, overuse can cause irreparable harm.

@propertyflyingfalcon4788

• I made this sentiment. Last year, I promised my brother that if I lose money, he will invest. I also bought QQQM last month, at 199.6, and then it fell for a month. I didn’t feel it was expensive at all. Yesterday it suddenly exceeded 200. If I waited for a bargain last month, now it is getting more and more expensive. It’s safer to buy if you have money. In the past two years, every time I make a mistake, I start looking for answers and corrections from the first episode. In the past two years, the teacher's videos have become my martial arts secrets, and I have to change my name to the teacher as my master. Now we have become million-dollar investors, have escaped from poverty, and are now apprentices. The great love of teachers is passed down from generation to generation, and we are also committed to promoting it to our employees and the people around us.

What I teach is experience paid for with real money

• James: @propertyflyingfalcon4788 Indeed, we don’t know what mistakes we will make, but when we make mistakes, it is a kind of growth.

• What I teach you is experience gained with real money.

QQQ covers the future’s hottest sectors. You do not need to know the future; you only need to know that QQQ is eternal

• There is no distinction between stocks and individual stocks!

• In the past, train transportation stocks, oil stocks (black gold), defense industry, and aviation stocks were all as popular as today's semiconductor stocks!

• Some people would say that when you find that these stocks are no longer good, you can sell them and exchange them for other popular stocks. Can it be done? In the end, it was only after they fell by 20% that they discovered that these stocks were no longer good, and they sold them again. The result is unknown. There may be people who are very powerful, but we admit that they are not powerful at all and do not have the ability!

• QQQ covers the hottest stocks in the future. You don’t need to know the future, just know that QQQ is eternal.

• When many companies were unknown, QQQ had already included them as constituent stocks.

• A single stock must be prepared to return to zero. The constituent stocks of QQQ will also decline, but QQQ knows how to automatically exchange shares. When investing in individual stocks, do ordinary people need to know how to sell them or exchange shares when QQQ declines? Still willing to let most of the holdings go to zero and hope that one or two supporting stocks can earn a hundred times or a thousand times. This is not impossible, it is a difficult activity and psychological test, and it is also a matter of probability.

• No ability is required to hold QQQ, and there is no probability of error. There is only the joy and happiness of long-term wealth.

The same applies to sectors. Who knows which sectors will be hottest twenty years from now?

• I am very impressed. The earliest S3 Cirrus Logic, and later NVDA was still fighting with ATI. NVDA was launched in 1999 and joined QQQ in early 2000. Who would have chosen NVDA at that time? I know that NVDA has joined QQQ constituent stocks, but I am a big customer of graphics cards, and I don’t think NVDA is anything special. If I had to choose stocks at that time, I would have chosen INTC, and I would have laughed to death if I chose NVDA.

• Therefore, choosing popular fried chicken is usually not the future trend. What everyone knows now, but how much meat there is, I don’t know! But based on my 30 to 40 years of investment experience, only what you know and no one else knows can have excess profit Alpha. We don’t have the ability, so if we can’t win, we’ll join.

• The same goes for stocks. Who knows which stocks will be the most popular in twenty years?

• Too lazy to worry, enjoy life, don't worry about these things, and worrying may not improve performance.

• I know I can't do it myself!

CLEC Investment and Financial Management Education Academy 00451, "2024" First Investment Class: An Investment Life Lecture Worth 100 Million Yuan, December 29, 2023, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel https://youtu.be/4FMjmyBpTzw

It is wonderful and joyful when the market rises every day

We have a pinned comment in the YouTube comments area where you can download handouts and find other related links.

• Or email me:

• [email protected]

• [email protected]