00496 December 28, 2024

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Over the long run, the market only rises

Clubhouse: relaxed conversations about investing, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel, December 28, 2024

Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• International affairs have nothing to do with me!

• Market analysis has nothing to do with me!

• Financial statements have nothing to do with me!

• Economic conditions have nothing to do with me!

• None of it has anything to do with me!

• Ignore the noise and turbulence of the market!

Investing blindly without learning is dangerous

• Watch our videos and ask specific questions, including:

• The video number and the timestamp where the question came up.

• Asking questions after watching the video is the most effective way to learn.

CLEC has no discussion groups, and we have not authorized anyone to act on our behalf

• We cannot know the membership or purpose of any group, and such groups can easily be infiltrated by people with bad intentions.

The investments we mainly recommend are the Nasdaq 100 index fund QQQ and the corresponding local ETFs issued in each country

• Do not rely entirely on financial consultants, including Charles Schwab financial consultants. They can help with account opening, but we do not recommend fully adopting the ETFs or other financial products they suggest.

• Over the long term, the Nasdaq 100 index fund and the S&P 500 index fund have been among the best-performing investments. Outside of these, individual stocks, funds, and financial products usually do not help investment success and should be avoided.

We recommend investing 100% in a Nasdaq 100 index fund

• United States: We recommend buying QQQ, or QQQM for smaller accounts. Cash can be placed in money market fund SWVXX or short-term Treasury bill ETFs BIL and SGOV.

• Taiwan investors: We recommend Fubon NASDAQ 00662. Cash can be invested in CTBC U.S. Government 0-1 Year Bond ETF Fund (00864B.TW).

• China investors: We recommend 513100/513300/160213/159941/161130/159660.

• Hong Kong investors: You can choose HKD 3086, USD 9086, ETF 2834 (HKD), or 9834 (USD).

• Canada investors: We recommend converting to U.S. dollars and buying QQQ directly, or investing in Canadian-dollar products QQC.TO/ETF (HXQ.TO).

• Australia investors: We recommend buying NDQ.

• United Kingdom investors: We recommend the U.S.-dollar-denominated iShares VII Public Limited Company - iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF (CNDX.L). In Europe, we recommend EQQQ and CSPX.L.

• Brazil: The recently launched Nasdaq index fund is NASD11.

• Japan investors: You can choose 2568/1545/2631.

• Malaysia and Singapore investors: You can purchase U.S. QQQ through a Phillip Securities POEMS Cash Plus trading account.

• South Korea: The recommended QQQ ETFs are 368590.KS/133690.KS/367380.KS.

• https://docs.google.com/file/d/1RMnRsR82hQGj9T7dTZqs5A9q_p4lmbwa/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msword

Since 2018, we have kept all videos on YouTube so everyone can learn investing in chronological order

• The videos reflect the market conditions and appropriate investment decisions at the time. As time changes, some strategies may no longer apply. They remain valuable learning resources.

• Viewers should interpret each video in the context of the market conditions at that time, and develop their own thinking and judgment.

• Our early investment recommendations included certain individual stocks and regular funds. Although they were good choices at the time, suitable investments must also account for personal risk tolerance and investment strategy.

Investors are always extremely optimistic!

Investors always face the sunshine!

The market will ultimately rise!

Investing requires patience!

Wealth is worth waiting for!

Subscribe, comment, like, forward, and share on Apple Podcasts. Remember to leave a five-star subscription so you can receive real-time market updates.

The market will keep rising forever; it only rises and never falls

* For European investors, available ETFs are listed here

https://www.justetf.com/en/how-to/nasdaq-100-etfs.html,

• ETF Screener | justETF

• https://www.justetf.com/en/search.html?search=ETFS

• In the PEA account, Amundi Nasdaq-100 Daily (2x) Leverged UCITS ETF Acc (https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=FR0010342592#overview), available for rebalancing, the main disadvantage of PEA is that our investment cannot exceed 150,000 euros.

James: Thanks for the information. This is like margin borrowing; the borrowed money simply was not reinvested

• @maggieli9961

• Here I would like to share my experience of using an IB account in the UK. Since UK IB cannot withdraw GBP without GBP cash, I exchange USD for the GBP required each month and the account therefore shows a negative balance in USD. The current U.S. dollar interest rate is about 5.83%, but the interest on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds I hold in IB can be used to offset the borrowing interest costs. It's currently experimental, I wonder if other members of the group have a better way to operate it?

• James : Thanks for the information. This is like financing and borrowing. It’s just that the money borrowed is not reinvested.

• As long as you control the allocation of safe assets, it is also a way.

Therefore, I will configure the two children’s tax-free accounts with Beta 1.2

• A leveraged fund suitable for tax-free accounts includes a 3x leverage fund, LQQ3, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LQQ3.L/, priced in GBP.

• Most brokerage platforms in the UK do not support buying 3x leverage. Currently, we know that there is a large brokerage that supports it after a simple test, https://www.hl.co.uk Hargreaves Lansdown. Some small online brokerages such as T212 can purchase it, but they are not considered here.

• Therefore, I will configure the tax-free accounts of the two children with Beta1.2:

• EQQQ 60%, 3x LQQ3 20%, MMF 20%, smart rebalancing.

World affairs have nothing to do with me; no change in world affairs can alter this

• Use iPhone

• Can’t change shopping on Amazon

• Cannot change Tesla sales demand

• It cannot change NVIDIA’s massive demand for artificial intelligence chips.

• It cannot change the progress of human science and technology,

• It cannot change the innovative development of American companies.

A simple 2x leveraged fund has twice the risk, but only 1.4x the annualized return. Long-term total return, however, will exceed 2x

• Although the annualized return of double leverage is only 1.4 times, that is, if QQQ returns an annualized return of 14%, the annualized return of QLD is not 28% but only 19.6% (14% x 1.4) annualized return.

• In twenty years, QQQ will increase 13.74 times with an annualized return of 14%. QLD's annualized return of 19.6% will reach 35.86 times in twenty years, which is 2.6 times the growth of QQQ. Therefore, the relationship between annualized return and long-term growth is not proportional.

• The annualized return of double leverage is not twice that of the unleveraged fund, which does not affect the return of double leverage to be more than twice that of the unleveraged fund.

• After combining with cash, the risk of the combination of leveraged funds and cash is reduced, and rebalancing the leveraged funds can achieve double the return. We retain more cash, rebalancing smartly, and the return performance is actually better.

• Therefore, the biggest function of leveraged funds is asset allocation with cash. Reduce the risk of fully-positioned unleveraged funds and no cash.

You should have the mindset that "the market is far smarter than even the smartest individual stock-market participants"

• Trying to pick stocks and judge the timing of market entry and exit will not only pay a high price, but will also be in vain in the end.

• Long without a master. When the market rises, everyone looks down on the returns from index accumulation funds. Stock gods everywhere say how good the stocks they invest in are.

When the market plummets, these stock gods will naturally disappear.

Equity is the asset component of Wall Street

• The world is controlled by Wall Street.

• Equity is the asset component of Wall Street.

• When you own Wall Street's weighted stock equity assets, you own the world.

In these twenty years of teaching, if I were not sharing investment ideas, many issues would not need to be studied so deeply

• But as an investment sharer, you should not only provide investment knowledge that satisfies your own personal investment conditions, but also provide investment and wealth solutions that everyone around the world can have. I will benefit from it.

• Although our investment is completely different from Buffett's investment, Buffett's investment philosophy makes our system more perfect.

• Although there is no need to pay attention to any turmoil in the world and all economic data when investing in index funds, when you understand the nature of the entire financial industry and the knowledge of economics, accounting and logic, you can get rid of some monsters and monsters, so that we can continue to adhere to the path of index investment.

• Our current system is considered complete so far. I don’t know if it can be improved in the future, but now for the general public, everyone can find a place in our system, which is a safe path to wealth allocation through asset allocation.

• The most important thing among all safe asset allocations is cash, not stocks, not bonds, and not returns, but cash in short-term Treasury bill ETFs. This is the most important key asset for whether we can survive in the market.

Now, any country with a trade surplus against the United States and large U.S.-dollar foreign-exchange reserves is effectively a U.S. territory

• This aspect of finance and currency is profound. The more you think about it, the easier it becomes. But it is a very important key knowledge point of capitalism. If you think about it clearly, you will know the status between countries, and you will know your own status in society and how wealth is distributed.

• It can be seen more clearly why China and some emerging countries are trying to get rid of their dependence on the U.S. dollar. Because if you recognize the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, you will become a territory of the United States. There is no doubt about this.

• Now, as long as the world is outpacing the United States, those who hold large amounts of foreign exchange reserves in U.S. dollars are U.S. territories.

• Only countries such as the Euro and the British Pound (UK) do not have a large trade surplus with the United States, and they are the main components of the world currency (SDR). Only countries with a balanced foreign trade have currency autonomy.

• Sovereign currency (fiat currency) is the expression of sovereignty. When your fiat currency is issued in reliance on other sovereign currencies (a large amount goes out of the country), you lose the sovereign status of your fiat currency.

• A slave collects currency from the landlord (IOU Note), and the slave will always be a slave. Because you disobey, the landlord can break the currency promise (the maximum amount of money owed.). Or the landowner could punish (sanction) the slaves.

The happiest thing in life is giving, not possessing

• When we start to have a lot, we have to think about what we can give and how it will help society. Although life may be meaningless, we must be happy in the process. "Giving" makes our life richer and happier.

• Remember that giving is not a monetary gift, but a spiritual and energy gift.

As capitalism develops to its extreme, the wealth gap keeps widening. This is one of its side effects

• Of course, capitalism has been developed to the extreme. The output and resources of robots are unlimited, and spiritual education is lacking. People don’t know what to do in life, and they give up on themselves.

• There is also systemic discrimination in society. Some disadvantaged ethnic groups have not received fair treatment in society for a long time. Systemic discrimination in society has caused them to lose their jobs, lose their families, and be unable to take good care of their children. These are all problems caused by the lower class society.

• The United States has a very sophisticated accounting system and precision capitalism. They measure the cost of these zero-dollar purchases as higher than the lost goods, so they just let it go when the cost of processing is higher. And when zero-dollar shopping happens, employees are told not to fight because the insurance company won't pay the claim.

• Moreover, the losses incurred by these companies or stores can be compensated by insurance, so these are a matter of system and logic, based on the concept of cost rather than ethical considerations. This is where Western thinking differs from Eastern thinking.

• There are some things we can't help with. When we can't do it, we just ignore its existence. Animals are killed every day in the forest. Some animals just want to be eaten by other animals. Heaven and earth are unkind, and we haven't seen the killing in the forest, so it doesn't exist. This is both incompetent and powerful.

Many people are unwilling to pay taxes, so they stay in jail forever

• Some people are bound by wealth and imprisoned by rigid thinking and cannot escape. Those who are smart and wise will quickly pay their taxes to escape from prison and break away from the government.

• Many people are unwilling to pay taxes, so they stay in jail forever.

• Rich and intelligent people look to the future. The poor look for trouble only in the present.

• Focus on eternity in everything. How can you escape the control of the government forever? This is the ultimate solution to financial management.

• Diet is very personal, everyone is different, one diet cannot fit everyone, only you can explore and know what you are, so I usually don't give dietary advice to others.

• Just like investment, everyone is different. If a universally applicable investment asset allocation is provided to everyone, either they are ignorant or they don’t know that they are ignorant.

• Everyone’s asset allocation is unique. Don’t use other people’s asset allocations, and don’t give others asset allocation advice casually. The asset allocations we usually recommend are very customized. Don’t plagiarize. You must learn the spirit of our asset allocation and find the asset allocation that suits you.

CLEC Investment and Financial Management Education Academy 00451, "2024" First Investment Class: An Investment Life Lecture Worth 100 Million Yuan, December 29, 2023, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel https://youtu.be/4FMjmyBpTzw

It is wonderful and joyful when the market rises every day

We have a pinned comment in the YouTube comments area where you can download handouts and find other related links.

• Or email me:

• [email protected]

• [email protected]