00488 October 19, 2024

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Over the long run, the market only rises

Clubhouse: relaxed conversations about investing, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel, October 19, 2024

Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• International affairs have nothing to do with me!

• Market analysis has nothing to do with me!

• Financial statements have nothing to do with me!

• Economic conditions have nothing to do with me!

• None of it has anything to do with me!

• Ignore the noise and turbulence of the market!

Investing blindly without learning is dangerous

• Watch our videos and ask specific questions, including:

• The video number and the timestamp where the question came up.

• Asking questions after watching the video is the most effective way to learn.

CLEC has no discussion groups, and we have not authorized anyone to act on our behalf

• We cannot know the membership or purpose of any group, and such groups can easily be infiltrated by people with bad intentions.

The investments we mainly recommend are the Nasdaq 100 index fund QQQ and the corresponding local ETFs issued in each country

• Do not rely entirely on financial consultants, including Charles Schwab financial consultants. They can help with account opening, but we do not recommend fully adopting the ETFs or other financial products they suggest.

• Over the long term, the Nasdaq 100 index fund and the S&P 500 index fund have been among the best-performing investments. Outside of these, individual stocks, funds, and financial products usually do not help investment success and should be avoided.

We recommend investing 100% in a Nasdaq 100 index fund.

United States: We recommend buying QQQ, or QQQM for smaller accounts. Cash can be placed in money market fund SWVXX or short-term Treasury bill ETFs BIL and SGOV.

Taiwan investors: We recommend Fubon NASDAQ 00662. Cash can be invested in CTBC U.S. Government 0-1 Year Bond ETF Fund (00864B.TW).

China investors: We recommend 513100/513300/160213/159941/161130/159660.

Hong Kong investors: You can choose HKD 3086, USD 9086, ETF 2834 (HKD), or 9834 (USD).

Canada investors: We recommend converting to U.S. dollars and buying QQQ directly, or investing in Canadian-dollar products QQC.TO/ETF (HXQ.TO).

Australia investors: We recommend buying NDQ.

United Kingdom investors: We recommend the U.S.-dollar-denominated iShares VII Public Limited Company - iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF (CNDX.L). In Europe, we recommend EQQQ and CSPX.L.

Brazil: The recently launched Nasdaq index fund is NASD11.

Japan investors: You can choose 2568/1545/2631.

Malaysia and Singapore investors: You can purchase U.S. QQQ through a Phillip Securities POEMS Cash Plus trading account.

South Korea: The recommended QQQ ETFs are 368590.KS/133690.KS/367380.KS.

Since 2018, we have kept all videos on YouTube so everyone can learn investing in chronological order

• The videos reflect the market conditions and appropriate investment decisions at the time. As time changes, some strategies may no longer apply. They remain valuable learning resources.

• Viewers should interpret each video in the context of the market conditions at that time, and develop their own thinking and judgment.

• Our early investment recommendations included certain individual stocks and regular funds. Although they were good choices at the time, suitable investments must also account for personal risk tolerance and investment strategy.

Investors are always extremely optimistic!

Investors always face the sunshine!

The market will ultimately rise!

Investing requires patience!

Wealth is worth waiting for!

Subscribe, comment, like, forward, and share on Apple Podcasts. Remember to leave a five-star subscription so you can receive real-time market updates.

The market will keep rising forever; it only rises and never falls

• Wei Zhejia, chairman and president of TSMC, said: "The demand for AI is absolutely real and not a bubble. Why I say the demand for AI is real is because we have actual experience. We have already used AI in factories. A 1% increase in production capacity (bred by AI) can bring about one billion yuan in value to TSMC. One of our important customers said that the demand (for AI) at this time is super crazy."

• Wei Zhejia said that the craze for AI is just the beginning. Even if TSMC doubles its production capacity, it will still fall far short of customer demand.

Your husband is still working, so you can use a QQQ 70%, QLD 20%, cash 10% plan

• Put cash into a brokerage account to allow your ROTH retirement account to grow tax-free. (This friend is because all retirement accounts are ROTH, so the ROTH account invests all in leverage funds and unleveraged funds, and the cash position is placed in the brokerage account. This is similar to last week's friend. Most of the assets are in traditional IRA. In order to prevent the traditional IRA from increasing in value too fast, it is recommended to put the cash in traditional IRA. Therefore, the asset allocation is very personal and customized. The asset allocation should suit you rather than apply it directly.)

• You are already afraid of heights. You sell when the price goes up. You still want to do beta 1.2? Are you talking nonsense? Don’t you know that your risk tolerance is extremely low!

• I don’t care how you want to buy, and I don’t want to suggest how to buy. If you can buy until you die, just buy a consultant as soon as possible. If you want to stop selling stocks, you must never sell.

Thank you for your reply. I will definitely get rid of the habit of selling stocks. Don’t worry. I will report to you in due course!

You said that the plan of cash 10% cash deposit brokerage account allows the retirement account to grow tax-free. What are your considerations? My retirement accounts are all Ro th, no Trad itio na l accounts.

Cash put brokerage account just buy BOXX?

James teacher replied:

Just because you are ROTH, the leveraged funds are placed in the ROTH account. You can try to let tax-free ROTH grow.

Put the cash in Brokerage account. Invest in BOXX and you don’t have to pay taxes if you don’t sell it.

• I would like to ask the teacher:

• 1. I checked that the stock selection mechanism of QQQ is that stocks must be listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Is it possible that the proportion of U.S. technology stocks listed on the Nasdaq will decrease in the future and be listed on other exchanges, thereby affecting the purity of QQQ in technology stocks? In other words, we do not sell stocks for long-term investment, but is it possible that the Nasdaq index will decline in technology stocks in the future?

• Nasdaq is a very large exchange. Why are high-tech companies listed on Nasdaq? It is because listing on Nasdaq is convenient and low-cost, so new companies that want to be listed later will seek listing on Nasdaq. This is not because Nasdaq is a high-tech company, but because companies that have been listed in the past 3 or 40 years are listed on Nasdaq. In the future, the first choice for any industry that wants to be listed is Nasdaq. If Nasdaq has problems, other New York exchanges are more likely to have problems. Because the New York Stock Exchange is a very old exchange, many traditional companies were listed there before, so there have been no changes.

Non-Americans cannot make pledges at U.S. securities firms

Leveraged funds of U.S. securities firms cannot be pledged.

@xia o yurun @c le c 168James Hello, teacher, please tell me, self-interest is engraved in genes. Capitalism, which has been continuously revised, values human rights and private property, and also has welfare. Moreover, the stock market reflects the economy and keeps rising. It feels really okay. I don’t feel bad at all.

• @xiaoyurun You don’t think capitalism is bad, which means you are on the right side of capitalism. Others (99%) who do not invest and only know how to work as laborers to save cash are on the other side of capitalism.

• Also, those who know how to invest are standing on the profit side of capitalism. People on the other side not only don’t know how to invest, but they also work hard as laborers and their wages are never enough. They are always exploited by their bosses and companies. They are also afraid that they will be laid off at any time, and the cash in their hands continues to depreciate. This is the immorality of capitalism.

• You don’t feel squeezed by the company. You are very happy as a laborer because you know how to change from a laborer to a capitalist. Work is just a service. You know that you will have money and you will be rich. You are on the right side of capitalism.

• I don’t feel that I’m being squeezed by capitalism. It’s because I’m completely ignorant of being squeezed when I’m working as a laborer. I don’t feel it. It doesn’t mean that capitalism doesn’t have this problem. Most people know that there is a huge gap between the rich and the poor. In fact, no one knows that this is a side effect of capitalism and a manifestation of the immorality of capitalism.

When the United States engaged in quantitative easing, did you benefit from quantitative easing? Or are you suffering from quantitative easing?

• If you do not feel the benefits of quantitative easing to you, and you are still opposed to quantitative easing, and you do not benefit when the government prints money, and you do not benefit a lot, it means that you are a group of victims of capitalism, but you are ignorant and do not know that you are being exploited.

• During the government's quantitative easing, I did not receive any checks from the government, but because of the government's quantitative easing, I borrowed money at zero interest rate, and my assets increased several times. This is the benefit of quantitative easing. Did you get it? Or just get a check. If you don't get the above benefits, just receiving a check from the government means you are being made poorer. Because the currency has depreciated.

Capitalism is fair, equitable and open regardless of race, age or gender.

• Only those who know are rich!

• Those who are not informed will suffer!

• People who don’t believe in it are self-defeating!

It took 24 years for the United States to reach a new high in 1927 and then return to a high in 1951. America’s Lost 24 Years

Taiwan’s weighted stock price index reached a new high in 1990, and then reached a new high in 2022 after 32 years of 12,682. Taiwan’s lost 32 years.

The Nikkei Index was close to 40,000 points in 1989, and it took 35 years until it exceeded 40,000 points in January this year. Japan's Lost 35 Years.

It took 24 years for the United States to reach a new high in 1927 and then return to a high in 1951. America’s Lost 24 Years.

The index of any country in the world will have a development period of nearly 30 years at the beginning, that is, after the initial high, the bubble bursts, and it will take 30 years to recover, and then there will be a long-term upward trend of a mature market.

Mature markets, including the Securities Regulatory Commission’s supervision mechanism, are fair, just and open

• Corporate hollowing out in the country has been relatively mild. Business owners should build their businesses in a down-to-earth manner and put shareholders' interests first.

• The shareholding ratio of long-term investors and legal entities is high.

• @Xinxin-t6s

• Teacher, can you tell me how to spend money? At present, our stock assets are not enough for retirement. We have half of the money in our stock account. For example, we have 2 million in stocks and 2 million in our retirement account. Counting stock accounts alone, retirement is still far away. But if you add retirement accounts, it's pretty close. I don’t dare to spend money at the moment. Every time the teacher talks about spending money, it’s hard to judge whether I can spend more generously and take my family on a trip. You should continue to save and accumulate stocks. You need to think clearly before you know whether you should spend money. Teacher, could you please explain how to spend money as a main topic? Do I need to consider the money in my retirement account when spending money?

You have four million now and the annual return is 14%. In forty years, you will have 750 million

If you want to spend 60%, you need to spend 450 million in 40 years, and you can spend 11.33 million a year. It costs 940,000 a month. You need to practice spending money. Otherwise, it will all be turned over to the U.S. government in the end.

If you are pledging stocks and you are borrowing money to spend it, your principal will not be spent, but you will reach 750,000,000 in 40 years, so you have to see your future wealth instead of just thinking about the mere four million in wealth you have now. He can be worth 750 million, so don't spend your assets carelessly.

Don’t you feel heartbroken when you find out that you have more than 750 million in the future and you haven’t spent it yet, but you still have to pay inheritance tax? So you need to know how to spend money at the right time. You have more than 4 million now. You should be able to spend 2% more a year, which is 80,000 US dollars a year. And if you are pledging stocks now and borrowing money from the bank (money is garbage) to spend it, why should you hesitate? Lend out $80,000 to spend, and then put it into the market if you have any leftover salary.

In other words, borrow money to spend your salary and invest all your assets. This is the top level of capitalism, but we must remember to control risks.

I would suggest not to use "Money is enough!", just say that the money is enough. I just saw a poor man in front of me who has no ambition.

"Money is enough!" There is a "limitation" which means there is not enough money! People who say "you have enough money" are just spending money all the time. In fact, you have to know that people live a long life now. Many people think that they have enough money, but in the end they will definitely not have enough money, and they may end up living on the streets and become dirty old people. Only those who say they can never run out of money and have so much money that they can never run out of small expenses and spending money is no problem are wealthy people.

You think that if you have enough money, your assets will not need to grow, or they are simply being consumed. It’s not good to have assets diminished! If you have enough money, it means you are spending your assets.

I hope everyone will understand:

"All the money in the world is mine!" "My assets will always grow more and more!" "I borrow money to spend, spend it whenever I want, spend it as much as I want, and never spend it all." "I will never spend my own assets, borrow money (garbage) to spend, borrow money without interest, and never pay it back!" The above is the thinking of the rich!

@ton-pinyu8041

-Teacher James, Brother, I grew up in the rural area of Puzi, Chiayi. My education since I was a child is not to go into debt! The teacher taught you how to live by pledging stocks and borrowing money. It was really refreshing. I had never heard of it in the past 70 years!

This is our Asian ignorance of financial knowledge and the operation of capitalism.

• Why are European and American countries so financially developed? Why are American capitalists so rich? European and American governments only borrow money to make their countries rich and powerful. All enterprises operate on borrowed money. Without lending relationships, mankind would return to the Stone Age.

There is no age limit for stock pledged loan in Taiwan. It has been confirmed with several financial institutions.

• @broyay4785 I don’t know where the information about the upper limit of 65 years old comes from?

• Yuanta Securities Financial official website explains the application qualifications for securities guaranteed loans:

• (1) Nationals of the Republic of China who are over 20 years old and have full capacity to act.

• (2) Domestic legal persons registered under the laws of the Republic of China,

• (3) Overseas Chinese and foreigners in the country

• • -There is only a lower age limit but no upper age limit.

Stock pledged loans can be repaid throughout your life, whether in the United States or Taiwan. There is no age limit for stock pledged loans in Taiwan. This has been confirmed with several financial institutions. In the United States, you don’t even have to repay interest, that is, you don’t even need to pay back interest. In Taiwan, you have to pay back interest. The money you have to pay back interest is also borrowed from stock pledged loans to repay the interest, so it is equivalent to a fake action without selling your own assets to repay the interest.

The last thing banks like is for you to repay money, so if someone who can borrow money never borrows money but never repays it, the bank is actually the happiest, because the money loaned out is the performance, and the money at home is inventory to the bank.

Why real estate requires you to repay the principal and interest together? It’s because the house will get old, and the borrower will also get old. Then he is afraid that the borrower will have no money, and the house will only get older. The bank is worried that it will not be guaranteed, so the bank requires you to repay the principal and interest on time. In Taiwan, even if you use real estate mortgage without repaying the principal, you still have to repay the principal after the age of 75.

• But stock pledged loans are different. Stocks are not like houses. Stock index funds will not grow old. They have substantial market prices and are highly liquid. If the bank finds out that you have borrowed too much money or the stocks have fallen too much, and they feel it is not safe enough. You have insufficient credit and insufficient funds, they will sell your stocks in the next second. There is no risk to the bank at all. Stock pledges have no risk to the bank, but real estate pledges are very risky to banks. Earthquakes, fires and floods will make the collateral worthless. Therefore, the principal does not need to be repaid when pledging stocks, and the interest is also borrowed and repaid, so you do not need to repay it for a lifetime.

• If the stocks are pledged and eventually become an inheritance, banks in Taiwan may require the debts to be repaid first (I am not sure whether the debts owed by the deceased must be repaid first.) In order not to reduce the assets, the children can first inherit the unpledged stock assets and obtain the portion of the inheritance. After pledging the assets, you can borrow money and repay the pledged debt of the deceased. You can still inherit the assets without selling them. You can also borrow money to pay inheritance taxes, and you don't need to sell assets to repay debts. All inheritance taxes and debts are borrowed to pay and repaid. You can continue to borrow money from generation to generation and never pay it back.

Thanks to Tony for leaving a message and replying. When you have a small amount of money, tax is not a problem. When you have a big amount of money, tax is a big problem.

• Investing in 00662 not only saves on transaction fees, but also on handling fees. Switching back to 00662 from re-entrustment is not for saving money, but for convenience.

• Taiwan 00662 can be traded as soon as the market opens in Taiwan. If you re-entrust it, you have to wait until the US market opens. And your transaction price is relatively poor, because through an overseas securities firm, both domestic and overseas securities firms have to earn the bid-ask price difference. In fact, your transaction price has been stripped twice without you realizing it.

• You still have exchange rate losses for converting US dollars to Taiwan dollars. Double entrustment is a thing that is harmful but not beneficial, and as Tony said, multiple delegation cannot be pledged. You know that the financial operation of stock pledged loan is the most powerful tool. If you don’t use the most powerful tool, you will do something that is harmful but useless. Why do you do multiple delegation?

[00049 Short Story][Question from Taiwanese investors, 00662 Is internal deduction of fees a problem? Re-entrustment and tax issues of overseas securities firms. ]! September 29, 2023 CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel] https://docs.google.com/file/d/19ypRsfNUkN4oMw_Lmhboo_orwgzPwr2K/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msword

[Do not open an account with an overseas securities firm; do not re-entrust] https://docs.google.com/file/d/1YCbYmClKeIB3PMn8y08ftfrboy-X1fPF/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msword

Remember that the stock price fell to the floor, and there were 18 levels of hell

[How difficult is it to take on dips, let alone take on leveraged funds at dips. ] The asset allocation of 50% leveraged funds and 50% cash is an extremely risky asset allocation.

Many investors want me to wait until the low point before balancing the purchase of leveraged funds, and they will encounter a situation where they will not dare to buy when the price falls. Still missed the opportunity to buy on dips. And lose the opportunity cost of profit in the market. Or if you continue to buy, the asset will fall to close to zero and you will never be able to recover.

In addition, some investors want me to use half leveraged funds and half cash, which is the safest way. Because the market falls, I have funds to buy at low prices. This is a strategy that is completely inhumane, and the final result is bankruptcy. In 2000, QLD fell from the highest price of 17.3 US dollars to 0.8 US dollars. At that time, TQQQ had only $0.1 at its lowest point. How many people could buy it all the way.

I remember that the stock price fell to the floor, and there were 18 levels of hell.

• • And usually the average person starts buying when it drops 20% from 17.3, starts buying when it reaches $13, then buys when it drops to $11, and then buys when it drops to $8, but unexpectedly it continues to be halved to $4. Please think about this situation, how frightening it is to be in this situation.

• When your assets take on leveraged funds due to bargain hunting, the market falls again and again. The market drops from $17 to $4. After you take over the last one, it continues to fall by 80%. Your final assets are less than 5%. You will not be able to wait for this part of the assets to return to normal in this life. All your investments in this life will be ruined, and your life's finances will also be ruined.

• • Remember, in the market, knowing and being able to do it are two different things. Remember, even if the revolver is loaded with only one bullet, there is only one in ten million chance of firing, so don't shoot yourself in the head.

CLEC Investment and Financial Management Education Academy 00451, "2024" First Investment Class: An Investment Life Lecture Worth 100 Million Yuan, December 29, 2023, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel https://youtu.be/4FMjmyBpTzw

It is wonderful and joyful when the market rises every day

We have a pinned comment in the YouTube comments area where you can download handouts and find other related links.

Or email me at [email protected] or [email protected].