00493 November 30, 2024

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Over the long run, the market only rises

Clubhouse: relaxed conversations about investing, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel, November 30, 2024

Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• International affairs have nothing to do with me!

• Market analysis has nothing to do with me!

• Financial statements have nothing to do with me!

• Economic conditions have nothing to do with me!

• None of it has anything to do with me!

• Ignore the noise and turbulence of the market!

Investing blindly without learning is dangerous

• Watch our videos and ask specific questions, including:

• The video number and the timestamp where the question came up.

• Asking questions after watching the video is the most effective way to learn.

CLEC has no discussion groups, and we have not authorized anyone to act on our behalf

• We cannot know the membership or purpose of any group, and such groups can easily be infiltrated by people with bad intentions.

The investments we mainly recommend are the Nasdaq 100 index fund QQQ and the corresponding local ETFs issued in each country

• Do not rely entirely on financial consultants, including Charles Schwab financial consultants. They can help with account opening, but we do not recommend fully adopting the ETFs or other financial products they suggest.

• Over the long term, the Nasdaq 100 index fund and the S&P 500 index fund have been among the best-performing investments. Outside of these, individual stocks, funds, and financial products usually do not help investment success and should be avoided.

We recommend investing 100% in a Nasdaq 100 index fund.

United States: We recommend buying QQQ, or QQQM for smaller accounts. Cash can be placed in money market fund SWVXX or short-term Treasury bill ETFs BIL and SGOV.

Taiwan investors: We recommend Fubon NASDAQ 00662. Cash can be invested in CTBC U.S. Government 0-1 Year Bond ETF Fund (00864B.TW).

China investors: We recommend 513100/513300/160213/159941/161130/159660.

Hong Kong investors: You can choose HKD 3086, USD 9086, ETF 2834 (HKD), or 9834 (USD).

Canada investors: We recommend converting to U.S. dollars and buying QQQ directly, or investing in Canadian-dollar products QQC.TO/ETF (HXQ.TO).

Australia investors: We recommend buying NDQ.

United Kingdom investors: We recommend the U.S.-dollar-denominated iShares VII Public Limited Company - iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF (CNDX.L). In Europe, we recommend EQQQ and CSPX.L.

Brazil: The recently launched Nasdaq index fund is NASD11.

Japan investors: You can choose 2568/1545/2631.

Malaysia and Singapore investors: You can purchase U.S. QQQ through a Phillip Securities POEMS Cash Plus trading account.

South Korea: The recommended QQQ ETFs are 368590.KS/133690.KS/367380.KS.

Since 2018, we have kept all videos on YouTube so everyone can learn investing in chronological order

• The videos reflect the market conditions and appropriate investment decisions at the time. As time changes, some strategies may no longer apply. They remain valuable learning resources.

• Viewers should interpret each video in the context of the market conditions at that time, and develop their own thinking and judgment.

• Our early investment recommendations included certain individual stocks and regular funds. Although they were good choices at the time, suitable investments must also account for personal risk tolerance and investment strategy.

Investors are always extremely optimistic!

Investors always face the sunshine!

The market will ultimately rise!

Investing requires patience!

Wealth is worth waiting for!

Subscribe, comment, like, forward, and share on Apple Podcasts. Remember to leave a five-star subscription so you can receive real-time market updates.

The market will keep rising forever; it only rises and never falls

CLEC James Investment Advisor

• https://chatgpt.com/g/g-Q8Y2TmEcq-clec-james-investment-advisor

• The main risk in the financial environment is "failure to accumulate enough assets over a half-century investment career (that is, not to be able to buy and sell as much money as possible.) and to spend these assets wisely." (Earn enough money, spend enough money.).

• The biggest risk in the financial environment is not short-term fluctuations or market crashes, but your failure to accumulate enough assets during your half-century investment career. To put it simply, you don’t dare to buy when you have money, or you buy but are unwilling to hold it for a long time.

• Time is money, do you still want to waste your time and waste wealth through short-term operations? Furthermore, when you successfully accumulate assets but fail to use them wisely, this is also a risk.

• Remind yourself every day that the ultimate goal of investing is not to get rich suddenly, but to reduce the risk of financial trouble throughout your life. Shortcuts to wealth may be tempting, but the most important thing is to ensure that you don’t fall into poverty because of poor decisions.

The most effective way to achieve this goal is to choose a simple, boring, low-cost, and passive investment strategy that focuses on solid stock index fund investments. Pair it with high-reliability securities guaranteed by the U.S. government, like T-Bills, these short-term bonds are almost equivalent to cash, and give yourself both financial and spiritual . This kind of investment method may not be flashy, but it can provide the most solid protection during your long investment journey.

You must remind yourself every day that the goal of investment is not to maximize the chance of getting rich, let alone maximize the return on investment, but to minimize the chance of dying in poverty.

The best way to achieve this goal is to invest in stocks through a boring, low-cost and passive index investment, plus buy from a large number of securities guaranteed by the full integrity of the U.S. government.

• Another way to reduce the risk of myopia, and avoid the tendency to overly seek security, is to hold large amounts of safe assets such as Treasury bills, certificates of deposit, and high-quality money market funds. These assets can provide a sense of stability when markets are declining, and this is priceless.

• So, how much safe assets should you hold? This issue is closely related to age. New retirees, for example, should have at least five years of living expenses in safe assets. This does not include Social Security or other sources of retirement benefits, but rather their additional living expenses. If you can save enough living expenses for ten or even twenty years, it will be safer.

• Therefore, for retired investors, it is recommended to allocate at least 20% of funds in cash and the remaining funds in index funds. If there is a need to pledge cash positions, this ratio should be further increased to ensure that it can calmly cope with market fluctuations in 10 or even 20 years.

However, young people are like a huge "bond" This bond will provide him with a surplus for decades in the future

How much safe assets should young people hold? This question depends on two things. The first factor is his personal employment security level. Is he a teacher? Or work at a tech start-up? Teachers only need to keep an emergency fund with enough food and clothing for a few months, but tech startup employees need to stock up on larger funds. It goes without saying.

Unless they inherit a lot of property, young people should take out disability insurance, and if they have other dependents, they should also take out life insurance (term life insurance). As long as your assets reach a safe level, you don’t need to be insured by insurance above. You can protect your own assets by yourself se lf ins ure

Never buy whole life insurance and savings insurance. You don’t need general disease insurance, let alone long-term care insurance. You should have enough funds to pay for long-term care when you get old. Long-term care insurance cannot take care of you throughout your life. Usually, in the end, the long-term care insurance compensation payment conditions are not met. The payment conditions for long-term care insurance are very strict. At that time, your long-term care expenses may not be covered by insurance. The best insurance is to have your own money. Our channel is all about teaching you how to be rich.

No matter how old an investor is, no matter what profession he belongs to, he must know an important key: the human instinctive reaction to short-term losses is the way to make him pauper.

So, he should learn how to use the short market as a boost Whenever his portfolio takes a big hit and stock prices fall to extremely low levels, he must constantly remind himself that such a situation represents a higher future rate of return, and remind himself again and again that it will be many years (or even decades) before he needs to use those stock assets.

• Be suspicious of people and things in everything, and don’t believe it from the beginning. Of course, you don’t have to show your disbelief in his expression and mentality at the beginning, but you must be wary of all information and people outside. Doubt first, then seek confirmation, and finally confirm so that you won't get hurt.

• If you have 11,000,000 now, even if you no longer invest money, you will reach 80,000,000 in 15 years when you are 65, and you can retire without any problem.

• We don’t have to spend all our money in this life. Your trust will live forever and help you do a lot of good deeds. So we don’t exclude the more assets, the better. Finally, if you make a trust, you can help the people you want to help, such as helpless children or elderly people living alone, or your greater wish can be to rectify environmental pollution, etc. So don’t think about the problem that you have no offspring. You still have the goal to meet the destined person, but just let it happen and don’t force it.

Maybe you have been out of touch for a long time and do not understand our concept of borrowing against pledged stocks, never repaying, and not using interest

• I suggest that you have a good understanding of our stock pledged loan risk control. If you don’t understand safe asset allocation and do stock pledged loan, you may go bankrupt.

• You need to read the following links carefully to understand the articles and videos, so that there will be no risk in pledging loans.

• Our stock pledged loan asset allocation has situations 1 to 3.

• For example, assuming you have four million, use situation 2 asset allocation:

• 60% QQQ 2.4 million

• 20% QLD 800,000

• 20% money market 800,000.

• This way asset allocation beta 1.0

• Do smart rebalancing every year.

You may have borrowed 300,000 at a 7.5% rate, with annual interest of 22,500

• Your cash is 800,000 in the money market, and the interest rate is 5%. You can get 40,000 in interest a year, which is not 17,500 more than if you borrowed 300,000 with an interest of 22,500. This is why we borrow money without interest.

• https://docs.google.com/file/d/1KDkMJNEJLdIp7aRbhtPP-FuP2YSEuBo9/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msword

• Do not purchase insurance products for investment purposes. Although these products have the benefit of tax deferral, they have to pay a heavy price. Low returns are the biggest loss, high handling fees, huge surrender fees, and reduced risk in the amount of benefits.

• Avoid purchasing a variable universal life insurance policy (UAL VAL), which is a complex product that is very confusing, expensive and carries an extremely high risk of default penalties.

• Also, avoid whole life or universal life insurance, which typically cost much more than term insurance. Due to the complex fees associated with this type of insurance, surrender penalties may apply. In the end, if the market fluctuates, you will lose everything and your insurance policy will be wiped out.

Investing those premiums in a portfolio of solid, low-cost stock index funds and bond index funds will do much better, especially if you invest in index funds through an IRA and get the tax-deferred benefits. It's safest to have money yourself.

Avoid fixed index annuities (fixed index annuities) at all costs. Don’t let the name fool you. Treating a fixed-index annuity as a stock index fund is like treating Don Corleone as a Catholic. Yes, the rate of return of a fixed-index annuity is indeed linked to a specific stock price index (usually the S&P 500 Index).

But because the annuity itself sets a cap on its annual return, the long-term return of this annuity is much lower than the index to which it is linked. This tool sets a cap on returns in the years when the index performs best in order to never lose money. The problem is, the vast majority of capital appreciation comes from those years.

Not only that, this type of annuity also excludes dividends when calculating performance. The problem is that the rewards for investing in stocks come not only from the capital appreciation of the stocks, but also from the dividends issued by the stocks. Excluding dividends is tantamount to illegally absorbing part of the rewards that investors deserve. What’s more, these policies also come with early termination and transaction penalties.

• Thanks for the message, yes, don’t be cynical, don’t be narcissistic and self-loving, raise your head and see what you know and what you know. Only when we understand our environment can we obtain the best resources and returns from this environment. Capitalism is a world that I don’t want you to understand. 99.99% of the people are not informed and are just working hard, while the government and the capitalists seize the greatest wealth.

You should never tell your children how rich you are

To be honest, no matter how rich you are, you will never be as rich as Buffett and Musk, so we need to be humble.

And we must know that we are never enough. We have a lot to do to serve society, humanity and the earth. Don’t think that our assets are enough. Our assets are never enough.

So we shouldn’t tell our children how rich we are. We need to realize that we are very insignificant. We are rich enough but we don’t need to know how much money we have.

Compared with other parents, no one can ever tell how many assets we have, so children will not know either

• When I get along with my child, I just want to help him grow up and lead an ordinary life. Even the car we drive is a little older, and we don’t live in a mansion (the house is usually rented or a very ordinary residence.)

• You can never see how much we have compared to other parents, so our children won’t know how much we have.

• Until one day he finds out, Dad, why don't you go to work? Where does your money come from? Only then did I slowly educate my children on the concepts of investment and financial management.

• To educate children about financial management, you don’t need to let them know how much assets you have. Children will only understand how much assets you have when they receive an inheritance. They should not know how much assets you have before that. He has to fight his way through life.

• Of course, sometimes when he travels or he has some expenses when traveling, we can help him make his travel smoother and more comfortable. The car he drives is nearly 10 years old and does not have any luxury cars. So no matter how rich you are, your child must live the same life as everyone else, and he will not feel that he is any different.

• I have repeatedly told children that they must study hard and live a happy life every day. We study hard in order to serve the public. Even if you graduate and go to Starbucks to make coffee for others, it is a service that is very honorable. But after graduating from college, you have to make your own money and pay your own bills. But don’t be afraid. We have a home, and home is a place where you can definitely come back. Our children will not be different from others because of our family situation.

Thank you all for the discussion. Rational discussion requires math; calculate the numbers below and you will know

• I know that many elderly people in Taiwan are so poor that they only have one room.

• Yes, you can get a loan for a house, but if you have four or five houses and you are 70 years old, I don’t think you can get a loan anymore. Where will your cash flow come from?

• Of course you can say you come from rent, but rental income will not make you live a wealthy life.

• And if something unexpected happens and you need 4 to 5 million in capital, you will have to sell the house. After selling the house, you may have to pay some taxes. Then your rent will be reduced, and your life may become more and more miserable.

• Usually people who have too many houses don’t have enough cash flow. Compared with stock investors, the cash flow that can be measured by stocks is the difference between a big ocean and a small ditch.

My parents bought five houses in their lifetime. After retirement, their cash flow was insufficient, so they sold three rental houses in Taipei City one after another

• I don’t know how to invest in index funds, so I spent all my money after 30 years of retirement, and now I only have two houses left.

• A villa on the mountain has no business. My father is 90 years old and lives on the mountain and can no longer drive us. We, the children, have to bear the living expenses. I don’t know when the house will be sold.

• One room is in Guting District, but my mother wants to live there.

• Thirty years ago, if my mother hadn’t given me NT$1 million and I helped them invest, they would have had no cash flow for retirement. Is it possible for my children to support their parents’ monthly expenses of NT$100,000? Never rely on an unreliable house for your retirement. Don’t bother your children to take care of themselves in old age.

CLEC Investment and Financial Management Education Academy 00451, "2024" First Investment Class: An Investment Life Lecture Worth 100 Million Yuan, December 29, 2023, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel https://youtu.be/4FMjmyBpTzw

It is wonderful and joyful when the market rises every day

We have a pinned comment in the YouTube comments area where you can download handouts and find other related links.

Or email me at [email protected] or [email protected].