00489 October 26, 2024

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Over the long run, the market only rises

Clubhouse: relaxed conversations about investing, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel, October 26, 2024

Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• International affairs have nothing to do with me!

• Market analysis has nothing to do with me!

• Financial statements have nothing to do with me!

• Economic conditions have nothing to do with me!

• None of it has anything to do with me!

• Ignore the noise and turbulence of the market!

Investing blindly without learning is dangerous

• Watch our videos and ask specific questions, including:

• The video number and the timestamp where the question came up.

• Asking questions after watching the video is the most effective way to learn.

CLEC has no discussion groups, and we have not authorized anyone to act on our behalf

• We cannot know the membership or purpose of any group, and such groups can easily be infiltrated by people with bad intentions.

The investments we mainly recommend are the Nasdaq 100 index fund QQQ and the corresponding local ETFs issued in each country

Do not rely solely on the advice of financial advisors, including Charles Schwab financial consultant. They can assist in opening an account, but it is not recommended to fully adopt the ETFs or other financial products they propose.

Over the long term, the Nasdaq 100 index fund and the S&P 500 index fund are the best-performing investments. Other than this, individual stocks, funds and financial products are usually not conducive to investment success and should be avoided.

We recommend investing 100% in a Nasdaq 100 index fund.

United States: We recommend buying QQQ, or QQQM for smaller accounts. Cash can be placed in money market fund SWVXX or short-term Treasury bill ETFs BIL and SGOV.

Taiwan investors: We recommend Fubon NASDAQ 00662. Cash can be invested in CTBC U.S. Government 0-1 Year Bond ETF Fund (00864B.TW).

China investors: We recommend 513100/513300/160213/159941/161130/159660.

Hong Kong investors: You can choose HKD 3086, USD 9086, ETF 2834 (HKD), or 9834 (USD).

Canada investors: We recommend converting to U.S. dollars and buying QQQ directly, or investing in Canadian-dollar products QQC.TO/ETF (HXQ.TO).

Australia investors: We recommend buying NDQ.

United Kingdom investors: We recommend the U.S.-dollar-denominated iShares VII Public Limited Company - iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF (CNDX.L). In Europe, we recommend EQQQ and CSPX.L.

Brazil: The recently launched Nasdaq index fund is NASD11.

Japan investors: You can choose 2568/1545/2631.

Malaysia and Singapore investors: You can purchase U.S. QQQ through a Phillip Securities POEMS Cash Plus trading account.

South Korea: The recommended QQQ ETFs are 368590.KS/133690.KS/367380.KS.

Since 2018, we have kept all videos on YouTube so everyone can learn investing in chronological order

• The videos reflect the market conditions and appropriate investment decisions at the time. As time changes, some strategies may no longer apply. They remain valuable learning resources.

• Viewers should interpret each video in the context of the market conditions at that time, and develop their own thinking and judgment.

• Our early investment recommendations included certain individual stocks and regular funds. Although they were good choices at the time, suitable investments must also account for personal risk tolerance and investment strategy.

Investors are always extremely optimistic!

Investors always face the sunshine!

The market will ultimately rise!

Investing requires patience!

Wealth is worth waiting for!

Subscribe, comment, like, forward, and share on Apple Podcasts. Remember to leave a five-star subscription so you can receive real-time market updates.

The market will keep rising forever; it only rises and never falls

Leveraged Fund, Cash QQQ SPY Portfolio Risk and Returnmonte_carlo_sim_cagr

If you calculate it as 25 times your annual expenses, you must have at least US$3 million in investment assets.

Your current investment assets are 5.5 million US dollars, and soon you should reach 6 million US dollars in assets. There will be no problem in retirement.

Whether you want to do stock pledged loan has a lot to do with your asset allocation. Only by understanding our safe pledge asset allocation can we avoid the risk of pledge bankruptcy.

Generally, you are not familiar with pledging asset allocation and do not understand the risks of pledging, so it is not recommended to do stock pledging. You should adjust your assets to 80% QQQ; 20% money market. Brainless rebalancing every year.

If you want to do stock pledged loan, please read our following articles and videos about stock pledged loan carefully to see how you want to allocate assets in situations one to three.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/1KDkMJNEJLd

Ip7aRbhtPP- FuP2YSEuBo9/edit? usp=docslist_api&filetype =msword VGT If you have to pay taxes, it is okay never sell long-term. I hope you will sell individual stocks and switch to the index after you retire. Long-term capital gains taxes are fixed, so the sooner you sell out and switch to an index fund, the better.

You'd better adjust to 80% 20% as soon as possible. If the cash in your general account needs to be converted into cash by selling stocks, then don't do it to avoid incurring stock value-added tax. Put cash in a traditional IRA instead so that the traditional retirement account doesn't grow in value too quickly.

Your ROTH should invest in QLD, and put the same amount in the money market in traditional retirement accounts. This taxable traditional retirement account will not increase in value too fast. You must remember to convert every year.

If you put the money market fund annual return, I calculate 3.5%, before RMD (conversion will be completed within 17 years at age 75.) completely transferred to ROTH IRA, you will transfer 100,000 US dollars a year.

You should apply for social security benefits when you are 62 years old. The sooner you get it, the better. Invest in QQQ, the rate of return is high, and it is more cost-effective than the 8% increase the government gives you every year. And he got five more years of principal in his pocket than the one who was five years later.

You need 50,000 yuan a year, but your social security fund has provided 34,000 yuan. I don’t know if the 50,000 yuan has already been deducted from social security benefits.

• Let me assume that you need 50,000 yuan in addition to social security benefits.

• Then you need to have 1.25 million to 2.5 million. 4% of $1.25 million is fifty thousand.

• Your current assets are 1 million, and you are still short of 250,000.

• You should not open a company to invest in QQQ. It is impossible to avoid your responsibilities. The corporate tax in the United States is higher than the personal tax. The company is your name and your assets cannot avoid inheritance tax.

• Just use this million first to invest in SPHD and receive dividends every year to live on. There is no other better suggestion!

Reply: I usually recommend using 30% smart rebalancing

• Question: I have 2-3 mutual funds (Mutual Funds) that I bought 10 years ago and have to pay taxes. Should I grit my teeth and sell them before paying dividends at the end of the year? My current tax is 37%.

• Reply: You retire next year. If you have no other income when you retire next year, there is a one-year tax exemption of RMB 100,000 for long-term capital gains as a couple. You can save tax by selling it next year.

• Question: I want to confirm the Excel table, (50%) simulates the asset allocation of different investors rev 4.0 (the portion earned by leveraged funds in rising years is transferred to cash by 50% 20240409b), (30%) the simple version simulates the asset allocation of different investors rev 4.0f2 (the portion earned by leveraged funds in rising years is transferred to cash by 30% Video 00466), how to choose which one to use?

• Reply: I usually recommend using 30% smart rebalancing.

If a young man invests well

Invest NT$10,000 at the beginning of each month for those aged 25 to 30. The annualized return is 14%, and you will have 852,160.66 by the age of 30. In the age of 30 to 35, because of the salary increase, you invest an extra 5,000 Taiwan dollars a month, and invest NT$15,000 a month, and you will have 2,919,003.55 by the age of 35. When you are 40 to 45 years old, because of the salary increase, you invest an extra NT$5,000 every month, which is NT$25,000 a month, and you will have NT$16,233,318.95 at the age of 45. When you are 45-50 years old, because of the salary increase, you invest an extra NT$5,000 every month, NT$30,000 a month, and when you are 50, you will have NT$33,812,351. If you start working at the age of 25 with a salary of NT$35,000, borrow NT$800,000 first.

A credit of NT$800,000 for those aged 25 to 30 plus a monthly investment of NT$10,000. When you are 30 years old, you will have 2,392,492.33 When you are 30 to 35 years old, you will invest an extra NT$5,000 per month and NT$15,000 a month because of the salary increase. By the age of 35, you will have NT$5,884,780.61 When you are 35 to 40 years old, because of the salary increase, you will invest an extra NT$5,000 every month and NT$20,000 a month. By the age of 40, you will have NT$13,034,963.72 In the age of 40-45, because of the salary increase, I invest an extra 5,000 every month, NT$25,000 a month, and I will have 27,228,110.88 by the age of 45. In the age of 45-50, because of the salary increase, I invest an extra 5,000 every month, NT$30,000 in the first month, and I will have 54,981,883.72 by the age of 50. Retire at the age of 50, pledge stocks, and your assets will never be reduced. In another five years, at the age of 55, the assets will reach 105,862,920.68, and a life of more than 150 million will be achieved. In another five years, at the age of 60, the life will be 200 million. The longer you live, the richer you are.

I suggest selling the house immediately. If someone offers a price, sell it as soon as possible. If you sell it, invest immediately and you will make money back in half a year.

• If you sell real estate, 100% of your funds can be invested in high-growth 513100. If you hold real estate, it will be a bit troublesome, and you can only invest 70% in the stock market. It is not good to have a lot of money to pay off the mortgage on your house and be bitten into the house.

• You need 1 million for annual expenses. Your husband is still working and earns 650,000 per year. That means your fund gap is 350,000.

• Assuming that you currently have 35 million yuan in assets and spend it at 2%, you can spend 700,000 a year. Adding in your husband's 650,000, you can spend 1.35 million a year. However, if you don't have the very generous living expenses of 1.5 million, it is still possible.

• It is recommended to use a stable approach. You allocate 35 million assets, 80% of which is 28 million invested in 00662, and the other 20% of 7 million invested in 00864B. Rebalance every year to maintain 80% in 00662 and 20% in 00864B.

If you do not occasionally experience losses that feel crushing, do not expect enviable high returns

• As many people learned through the regrets of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, a stock that can increase in value by 900% in one year can easily lose 90% in next year.

• There is no way to avoid the risks that come with owning common stocks, and there is no market timing wizard in the world who can tell you exactly when to exit the stock market.

• At any given moment, there must be many prophets in the market, so every time a crash occurs, there will always be one or two prophets who accurately point out the timing of the crash due to pure luck.

• The prediction accuracy of these "geniuses" after they became famous is almost always far worse than the result of a coin toss, and this "accurate once and then inaccurate again" pattern is almost as accurate as clockwork (the so-called stock gods are only accurate once.)

The so-called "Treasury Bill (T-bil) investment tranquility theory": Your ability to stick to the end is directly proportional to the amount of short-term safe assets in your investment portfolio (must be equivalent to approximately several years of living expenses). (Cash keeps you going.)

By far the most important factor in determining personal investment success is your ability to respond well to the most dangerous times (which only account for a few percent of life).

The so-called most dangerous period refers to the moment when many things you originally took for granted suddenly collapse in front of you. Throughout your investment career, you will definitely experience such moments at least a few times, and in those difficult times, the most comprehensive investment targets that can protect you are the money market funds BIL BOXX SGOV and 00864B) and fixed deposit certificates you hold, no matter how low the yield on those targets is. Therefore, money market funds do not seek high interest rates, only principal preservation, and other underlying assets cannot replace capital preservation assets.

2023 version of investment rules: Real estate can always be invested, right?

Generally speaking, real estate does retain its substantial value and generate rental income, but owning real estate is more like a job than an investment.

If you like fixing toilets and are happy to deal with drug-addicted, gun-toting, idle tenants, then go ahead. Sure, you could pay a real estate management company to take care of all this shit for you, but the service isn't free, and, from a portfolio perspective, even in the best-case scenario, the best you can do is hold an under-diversified real estate portfolio consisting of a relatively small number of properties.

Holding a portfolio composed of real estate investment trusts (REITS) may be able to circumvent this restriction, but please wait until your capital reaches the necessary level of diversification before holding REITs. ⋯⋯It is best to hold stock index funds now.

For example, one researcher found that since 1926, the vast majority of companies have underperformed Treasury bills

• Ordinary people should not manage their own investment portfolios composed of their own stock selections. There is another more important reason. No matter how many stocks you hold, your investment portfolio will not be properly diversified. Buying an index fund instantly diversifies your investments without having to manage a portfolio of individual stocks yourself.

• In financial terms, stock returns are positively skewed, meaning that the vast majority of market returns come from a very small number of companies.

• For example, one researcher found that since 1926, the vast majority of businesses have underperformed Treasury bills.

• That is to say, overall, the bottom 96% of companies barely receive the same return as Treasury bills.

In other words, the entire equity risk premium (the excess market return over Treasury returns) is contributed by 4% of firms.

• Only 23% of the five-stock portfolio beat the market. However, increasing the number of stocks in the portfolio does improve the situation. A portfolio composed of 25 random stocks beat the market 37% of the time, while a portfolio composed of 100 randomly selected stocks beat the market 43% of the time. However, this does not take fees into account.

• Note that QQQ's 100 stocks are not a random combination. They are the 100 stocks with the largest market capitalization. They are not a random combination of 100 stocks from 3,500 stocks. U.S. corporate profits are positively correlated with market capitalization. And most of them are owned by companies with high market capitalization.

• Even if you try your best to find a needle in a haystack and finally find a relatively small number of 4% high-performing stocks, you can only get a rate of return that is in line with the market. It is not an exaggeration to say that. Therefore, it is better to simply take the whole sea as your own than to search and search hard for it.

CLEC Investment and Financial Management Education Academy 00451, "2024" First Investment Class: An Investment Life Lecture Worth 100 Million Yuan, December 29, 2023, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel https://youtu.be/4FMjmyBpTzw

It is wonderful and joyful when the market rises every day

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