00495 December 21, 2024

Number: 00495

Published: 2024-12-21

Pages: 34

Source filename: 00495 2024年12月21日簡報資料.pdf

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Over the long run, the market only rises

Clubhouse: relaxed conversations about investing, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel, December 21, 2024

Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

Market volatility has nothing to do with me!
International affairs have nothing to do with me!
Market analysis has nothing to do with me!
Financial statements have nothing to do with me!
Economic conditions have nothing to do with me!
None of it has anything to do with me!
Ignore the noise and turbulence of the market!

Disclaimer

Since July 2023, we have begun the process of canceling the company registration and nonprofit organization procedures for "CLEC Education Academy" and have changed all names to "CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel," formerly "CLEC Investment and Financial Management Education Academy." We may still use CLEC. Please remember that unless it is James Chen himself, it has nothing to do with us; do not be deceived.

Our videos and related content are for educational purposes only and are not for profit. We do not operate any discussion groups or communities. If someone invites you to join one, please beware of scams.

For more than twenty years, we have been committed to volunteer teaching and have never profited from it. Do not trust any paid investment advice. Although ads may appear on YouTube videos, that is outside our control and we do not profit from them.

All information we provide is only a sharing of personal experience. It is not advice from a professional investment advisor (Certified Financial Advisor/Planner). Investment decisions should be based on your own research and should not rely solely on video content.

Investing is risky and may lead to significant losses. If you cannot tolerate a short-term loss of more than 10% or a decline of more than 20% over several years, we recommend that you do not invest. Pay attention to your own cash-flow safety and fully understand our investment philosophy before taking action. Invest prudently; all decisions are your own responsibility.

My pinned comment in the YouTube comments area provides handout downloads and related links.

New friends, please watch the following videos on our channel first.

Investing blindly without learning is dangerous

Watch our videos and ask specific questions, including:
The video number and the timestamp where the question came up.
Asking questions after watching the video is the most effective way to learn.

CLEC has no discussion groups, and we have not authorized anyone to act on our behalf

We cannot know the membership or purpose of any group, and such groups can easily be infiltrated by people with bad intentions.

Do not rely entirely on financial consultants, including Charles Schwab financial consultants. They can help with account opening, but we do not recommend fully adopting the ETFs or other financial products they suggest.
Over the long term, the Nasdaq 100 index fund and the S&P 500 index fund have been among the best-performing investments. Outside of these, individual stocks, funds, and financial products usually do not help investment success and should be avoided.

United States: We recommend buying QQQ, or QQQM for smaller accounts. Cash can be placed in money market fund SWVXX or short-term Treasury bill ETFs BIL and SGOV.
Taiwan investors: We recommend Fubon NASDAQ 00662. Cash can be invested in CTBC U.S. Government 0-1 Year Bond ETF Fund (00864B.TW).
China investors: We recommend 513100/513300/160213/159941/161130/159660.
Hong Kong investors: You can choose HKD 3086, USD 9086, ETF 2834 (HKD), or 9834 (USD).
Canada investors: We recommend converting to U.S. dollars and buying QQQ directly, or investing in Canadian-dollar products QQC.TO/ETF (HXQ.TO).
Australia investors: We recommend buying NDQ.
United Kingdom investors: We recommend the U.S.-dollar-denominated iShares VII Public Limited Company - iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF (CNDX.L). In Europe, we recommend EQQQ and CSPX.L.
Brazil: The recently launched Nasdaq index fund is NASD11.
Japan investors: You can choose 2568/1545/2631.
Malaysia and Singapore investors: You can purchase U.S. QQQ through a Phillip Securities POEMS Cash Plus trading account.
South Korea: The recommended QQQ ETFs are 368590.KS/133690.KS/367380.KS.

Since 2018, we have kept all videos on YouTube so everyone can learn investing in chronological order

The videos reflect the market conditions and appropriate investment decisions at the time. As time changes, some strategies may no longer apply. They remain valuable learning resources.
Viewers should interpret each video in the context of the market conditions at that time, and develop their own thinking and judgment.
Our early investment recommendations included certain individual stocks and regular funds. Although they were good choices at the time, suitable investments must also account for personal risk tolerance and investment strategy.

Investors are always extremely optimistic!

Investors always face the sunshine!

The market will ultimately rise!

Investing requires patience!

Wealth is worth waiting for!

Subscribe, comment, like, forward, and share on Apple Podcasts. Remember to leave a five-star subscription so you can receive real-time market updates.

The market will keep rising forever; it only rises and never falls

If at the end of the year or the beginning of the year, you think the market has risen a lot, you are a little greedy and don’t want to rebalance, which is a bit overconfident. The market will retrace when it rises too much, but we don’t know when it will retrace.
Based on past experience, many friends are unwilling to do rebalancing when the market goes up, because they want to make more money by not rebalancing. As a result, they are frightened after the market drops and start rebalancing again. As a result, they do not sell at the high point and only sell and rebalance at the low point.

It’s human nature, but get over it.

So we have to rebalance in a passive way. And if you think that the market has risen very well and is no longer balanced, the last fear is to perform the balancing action, which is usually more gain than loss.

Build safe asset allocation and risk control, then use PAL to borrow money to pay taxes

Those who have pledged, of course, use borrowed money to pay taxes. Do not sell stocks in the investment account to pay taxes. When selling brokerage stocks, you have to add the value-added tax on brokerage stocks. The tax is added to the tax.
To ensure safe asset allocation and risk control, use PAL to borrow money to pay taxes.
If the market falls due to insufficient short-term mortgage assets, ROTH assets can be distributed to PAL brokerage account to supplement pledge assets.

James: This is truly wonderful. To hear, know, understand, believe, and execute brings wealth, joy, and happiness

Real estate taxes in my Bay Area increase every year, maintenance fees have also increased a lot, and my insurance has doubled this year. After listening to the teacher's class, I have sold two houses. I will sell one building next year, and I hope to sell both buildings. Then you will be completely free!
James: It's really great. I can hear, know, understand, believe and implement, and I am full of joy and happiness.
In the past, people talked about snails without shells, but now they have snails with shells. In fact, they have become cages with shells and slave labor with shells.

Money is like an astronomical telescope that lets you see all the wonderful possibilities in life

Money can broaden our horizons.
Money is like an astronomical telescope to see all the wonderful possibilities in life.

[Our wealth allows future generations to happily serve people in their own way]

Don’t give your daughter any advice. If she wants to go back to Taiwan, she can go back to Taiwan. If she wants to stay in the United States, she can stay in the United States. As parents, please don’t say a word to your children, because your words are very heavy to your children. But if he doesn’t like it, he wants to please his parents. Doesn’t this make the children very painful? Do you want your children to suffer?
Because happiness in life is the most important thing, and my daughter wants to return to Taiwan and be able to be with her parents. For children and parents, the happiest life is just like this, isn't it?
Is it right to live separated from parents in two places or to live separated from children in two places and not be able to see the children for many years, and the children cannot be with their parents? Is this good?
Many important things in life now seem not to be urgent, and work seems to be urgent, but work is indeed not important at all in our lives.
Life is not about work and money. The letter focuses on how my daughter can earn more money and invest more in the United States. The focus is entirely on money and does not care whether her daughter is working hard or happy. This is not good.
What kind of job will my daughter do when she returns to Taiwan? What salary do you get? As long as he can invest steadily, his children's lifetime wealth will definitely be richer than yours. Besides, parents are towering trees for their children. No matter how their children are, their parents are their biggest support.
We want our wealth to be enough for our children and grandchildren to be successful. We don’t have to worry about money, let alone work for money. We want our children and grandchildren to do what they want to do and serve the people happily in their own way, instead of working as laborers or slaves. Always remember: happiness is a human right. Wealth is a gift.

With annual smart rebalancing, the 30% in 00864B is your emergency reserve fund

I recommend the following asset allocation:
40% 00662
30%00670L
30% 00864B
Smart balance every year, 30% of 00864B is your emergency reserve fund.
All stocks and overseas recommissions should be converted into Taiwan dollars and replaced with the asset allocation recommended above. Do not hold individual stocks and do not hold other messy bonds and financial products.
Insurance is not required, just cancel the contract, redeem it and put it into the market as soon as possible.

For middle-aged friends in hardship, you only need to care about their physical and mental health. There is not much else we can do

Being in your 40s is really very young. There are still 18 years left until you are 65 and 43 years until you are 90.
If she invests NT$5,000 a month now, she will have NT$4.4 million by the time she is 65. When you retire, you can use 4% of your assets to get 15,000 yuan a month.
If she invests NT$10,000 a month now, she will have NT$8.8 million by the time she is 65 years old. NT$30,000 a month is already higher than the average retirement level in Taiwan.
In addition to the 4% expenditure from the age of 65, the original annualized return of 14% becomes 10%. Fifteen years later, when you reach the age of 80, the 4.4 million will come to 18,415,854.71. There is more than NT$60,000 a year, which can be enough to hire a caregiver.
The above information is for you to take the test! Share it with your friends too.

For friends with generally unstable jobs, the company may fail, they may be laid off, and sometimes they may have no income

Usually I would recommend that if you are a Catholic family, your career is stable, and you don’t need to sell assets to live, I would recommend setting aside half a year for emergency living expenses and investing the rest 100% in 00662. This is a relatively simple asset allocation, but the following 4-3-3 asset allocation can also be used.
For friends who generally have relatively unstable jobs, the company may go bankrupt, they may be laid off, and sometimes they may have no income.
I will recommend the following asset allocation
40% 00662
30% 00670L (twice leverage 00662)
30% 00864B (Equivalent to cash used as emergency fund.)
Wait until the end of the year or the beginning of the next year to be use smart rebalancing.
There are more than 4,000 listed companies in the United States, of which only 4% are profitable, so almost only 160 are profitable. SP500 includes more than 500 companies. If you invest in SP500, more than half of the companies are unprofitable. Why include weak companies in your investment index fund.
The S&P 500 includes 500 companies in the United States. There are too many companies, and they include many traditional industries, aviation and banking industries. These are outdated companies with very low growth rates and are not the ones we should invest in.

We invest in the Nasdaq 100 index fund because we believe in humanity, the United States, and technology

Of course human growth depends on technology, but does it also rely on traditional industries?
The United States is the most innovative country in the world. Except for TSMC, one of the top ten high-tech companies in the United States is in the manufacturing industry, the others are all innovative industries of American companies.
Human beings have continued to grow for thousands of years and have never stopped growing. Therefore, we believe that the market will always rise. There is no highest but only higher. Therefore, we buy the Nasdaq 100 index fund and never sell it.

If you have money, buy and never sell. We do not care about bull markets or bear markets. Never sell; there is no need to know bull and bear markets!

The market will always be long and not short for a hundred years. I have been investing for 40 years and the stock market has been rising. It has been rising all the way. There is no highest but only higher. I have never seen any shorts. Humanity has never been short.
The market has no lows and will always reach new highs. The market has no highs because it will always reach higher points.
So if anyone knows the lows and highs of the market, they are definitely a liar. Because the market's highs and lows do not exist, the market's highs are infinite.

What ordinary investors can do is buy and never sell

There is very little else we can do. It should be said that we have nothing "to do", that is to say, "nothing to do".
Serve the people at work, and you will win if you stay calm in investment.

Non-U.S. residents should not convert money into U.S. dollars to invest in QQQ, and should not buy QQQ

If you have money, buy at the market price immediately. Don’t speculate on the market or think you are smart. The problem for investors is that they think too much and know too much. There is no benefit in investing if you know too much; hesitation is the biggest enemy of investment.
Non-U.S. residents should not transfer money into U.S. dollars to invest in QQQ, and do not buy QQQ.
in China
In addition to China's 513100 (market value 6.2 billion) China Nasdaq 100ETF (QDII) 513300 (1.68 billion) and Guotai 160213 (2 billion) (similar performance to 513100); China's domestic securities can be bought QQQ-159941 (14.7 billion), 161130 (800 million), 159660
Don’t ask me about Bitcoin or anything I didn’t suggest. In China, you just buy 513100 and other Nasdaq 100 index funds, there is nothing else to say.

Your problem is that you know too much, think too much, and think about meaningless things. This is all a waste of your time

The premium in the Chinese market is very normal. This is the difference in market attack demand, and you will see that this premium will continue to be a premium and will exist forever. Since the premium will always exist, you have nothing to worry about.
Your problem is that you know too much, think too much, and think about meaningless things. This is a waste of your time.
You'd better watch our videos carefully. First watch "Investment Seminar Worth 100 Million Yuan" and then watch today's video from 2023. I don't have anything else to answer.
The first lesson on investing - investing in life worth 100 million yuan
https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLiskER8xug1cIb25CiKA0ybq12iUbaVxK&si=37nZCZ-ykCmLG5MD

Human beings are short-sighted. If they knew it would hit the 7% daily limit-up that day, of course they would buy immediately

If he knew that it would hit the 7% daily limit-up tomorrow, of course he would buy it quickly today.
But if I say it will increase tenfold in ten years, I don’t feel anything. Most people have no idea what will happen in 10 years. This is because human beings do not have a long-term vision for survival.
That is, human beings are not born with God's perspective. We are obsessed with the 7% rise and fall in the short term, but turn a blind eye to the 10 times or 100 times in the long term.
It is a pity that humans do not have a long-term vision. From ancient times, humans have focused on short-term food acquisition and short-term risk control. Otherwise, they would have been eaten by tigers. This is human nature. But investment cannot be humane.
To be successful in investing is to overcome human nature and control your emotions. We must see 10 times, 100 times, and 1,000 times in the long term and ignore short-term fluctuations.

Why do the rich get richer? Because in capitalism, credit and assets can borrow money and print money

Buffett, when he goes to Japan to borrow money, people will lend him money without pledging assets. This is a credit loan.
The area where credit loans are available (Taiwan) is really an investment paradise.
Taiwan’s financial weapons are sophisticated and among the best in the world. Bullets are abundant and cheap.
A privilege that rich people have is assets and credit. Assets and credit can print money. Therefore, rich people do not need to spend their own assets. They can just print money and spend it themselves.
Let your assets continue to grow at a high speed and earn more asset appreciation for the rich. This is why a rich man gets richer because he never spends his assets.
Ordinary people will only become poorer and poorer because they have to spend their assets all the time. When you are no longer able to work, your assets will continue to decrease.

CLEC Investment and Financial Management Education Academy 00451, "2024" First Investment Class: An Investment Life Lecture Worth 100 Million Yuan, December 29, 2023, CLEC Investment and Financial Management Channel https://youtu.be/4FMjmyBpTzw

It is wonderful and joyful when the market rises every day

We have a pinned comment in the YouTube comments area where you can download handouts and find other related links.