00498 [Asset Allocation and Pledge Strategies: Wealth Management on Autopilot] January 11, 2025 CLEC Investment and Personal Finance Channel

Related Materials

• Previous presentation: 00497 [A Basket of Fresh Fruit Is Better Than Picking Short-Term Trades From a Rotten Basket. Why You Need to Completely Update Your Investing Mindset and Take Control of Your Financial Future] January 4, 2025 CLEC Investment and Personal Finance Channel
• Next presentation: 00499 [Future Wealth Planning: Capital Allocation for the AI Era. Cash, QQQ, and QLD: Three Steps Toward Optimal Asset Allocation] January 18, 2025, CLEC Investment and Personal Finance Channel

Document Text

The market only goes up over the long run

Clubhouse casual investing chat, CLEC Investment and Personal Finance Channel January 11, 2025

Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• The international situation has nothing to do with me!

• Market analysis has nothing to do with me!

• Financial statements have nothing to do with me!

• The economic situation has nothing to do with me!

• Market volatility has nothing to do with me!

• Ignore market noise and volatility!

Investing blindly without learning is dangerous

• Watch our videos and ask specific questions, including:

• The video number and the timestamp where the question appears.

• Asking questions after watching the video is the most effective way to learn.

CLEC has no discussion groups, and we have not authorized anyone to do anything

• We cannot know the membership or purpose of any group, and such groups are easily infiltrated by bad actors.

Our recommended investments are mainly the Nasdaq-100 index fund QQQ and corresponding local ETFs issued in each country

• Do not blindly trust financial advisers, including Charles Schwab financial consultants. They can help open accounts, but we do not recommend fully accepting the ETFs or other financial products they propose.

• Over the long run, the Nasdaq-100 index fund and the S&P 500 index fund have been the best-performing investments. Individual stocks, other funds, and wealth-management products usually do not help investment success and should be avoided.

We recommend 100% investment in the Nasdaq-100 index fund

In the U.S.: buy QQQ, or QQQM when capital is limited. Cash can be invested in money market fund SWVXX or short-term Treasury bill ETFs BIL and SGOV.

Taiwan investors: Fubon Nasdaq 00662 is recommended. Cash can be invested in CTBC U.S. Government 0-1 Year Bond ETF Fund (00864B.TW).

Chinese investors: 513100/513300/160213/159941/161130/159660.

Hong Kong investors: available in HKD 3086, USD 9086, ETF 2834 (HKD)/9834 (USD).

Canadian investors: It is recommended to buy QQQ directly in USD or invest in CAD at QQC.TO/ETF (HXQ.TO).

Australian Investors: NDQ is recommended.

UK Investors: iShares VII Public Limited Company - iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF (CNDX.L) USD recommended; EQQQ, CSPX.L recommended for Europe.

Brazil: The recently launched Nasdaq Index Fund is NASD11.

Japanese investors: 2568/1545/2631 available.

Malaysia and Singapore citizens can buy U.S. QQQ through Phillip Securities' POEMS Cash Plus trading account.

Korea: The recommended QQQ ETF is 368590. KS/133690. KS/367380. KS.

• https://docs.google.com/file/d/1RMnRsR82hQGj9T7dTZqs5A9q_p4lmbwa/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msword

Since 2018, we have kept all videos on YouTube for you to invest in chronological learning

• The video content reflects the market conditions at the time and the correct investment decisions, but over time, some strategies may no longer apply, these are valuable learning resources.

• Viewers should consider the content of the video in light of the prevailing market conditions and develop their own thinking and judgment.

• Our early investment advice included certain stocks and general funds, which were good investment options at the time, but suitable investment targets also need to consider individual risk tolerance and investment strategies.

Investors are always extremely optimistic!

Investors always welcome the sunshine!

The market is finally going to go up!

Investing takes patience!

Wealth is worth waiting for!

Subscribe, comment, press, retweet Apple Podcast Remember to give five subscriptions to receive market instant messages

The market keeps rising forever; it only goes up, not down

Real estate is an extremely risky asset due to frequent natural and man-made disasters

• Everyone thinks that all in the Nasdaq 100 index fund is very risky, but all in 1 house, storms, floods, earthquakes and fires, plus tornadoes and hurricanes in the United States, are all gone.

• The house burned down will have nothing, the insurance money that was not burned will be doubled and tripled, who can afford it?

• The house is a consumer product. It is an asset that eats money. It is not only risky, but also has to pay taxes, maintenance fees, and insurance. Moreover, once the natural disaster occurs, everything becomes useless. This risk is so high that everyone ignores it and mistakes the most dangerous asset as the safest asset.

• Nasdaq-100 index fund, no taxes, no maintenance fees, no insurance, no fear of storms, floods, fires and earthquakes. Is there a better asset with high long-term returns?

The second person borrows a million dollars to spend, and after spending the borrowed one million dollars, they can still live happily.(Maybe a million bucks to tens of millions more.)

Imagine two people with only a million.

Results After a few years, it cost both of them a million.

After the first individual spends a million dollars, the money is gone. Hurry up and get a job as a laborer.

The second person borrows a million dollars to spend, and after spending the borrowed one million dollars, they can still live happily.(Maybe a million bucks to tens of millions more.)

Do not buy newly issued funds

• ETFs that have just been listed will have a larger tracking error because the market value is relatively small. Because they need to use some funds for futures hedging, the market value is relatively small. The position of the futures accounted for the entire asset is relatively large. The tracking error of the fund with a relatively small market value is definitely larger, and the tracking error of 00662, which has a relatively large market value, will be relatively small.

Investing is not military command: it is not about hearing one order and making one move

• 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 asset allocation is a suggestion, you need to understand the spirit of asset allocation, not copy it. Auto-navigate after the initial asset allocation siege.

• Stakeholders must start with 4-3-3. Unstaked, if you can't bear the shock, lower the beta, lower the leverage position, 6-2-2 beta 1.0 or 80% than 20% beta 0.8 does not hold leveraged funds.

• You have to allocate assets according to your own situation, not what I say and what you do, everything should be applied flexibly, understanding is more important than anything.

• Investing is not military command: it is not about hearing one order and making one move.

• You need to be able to make your own asset allocation and make the most suitable asset allocation between 0.8 and 1.2 in the asset allocation beta.

00498 Asset Allocation and Pledge Strategies: Wealth Management with Autopilot. January 11, 2025 CLEC Investment and Personal Finance Channel

• Pledged Borrowing can only lend up to the total assets you are currently investing (including pledged brokerage accounts, IRAs and Roth) all investable assets per year.) of 2%.

• Your pledged borrowing debt will slowly increase each year, but so will your assets. Your debt is 2% of the annual increase in borrowing plus interest. But your assets are growing at an annualized rate of return of about 10% per year, and in an already rising year, your assets will appreciate faster than your indebtedness.

• Unless the initial pledge encounters a year of decline from 2000 to 2009, it is possible that the ratio of your debt to assets will increase, but don't worry. Our asset allocation is that after you start to make a 4-3-3 asset allocation, you will start pledging and borrowing. After doing a smart rebalancing every year, the asset allocation will automatically navigate. You don't need to pay attention to the debt-to-asset ratio, because our safe asset allocation will always be greater than the debt, and the debt-to-asset ratio will remain above 1.67% in the worst case, and you will not be forced to repay by the bank.

(30%) Simplified version simulates asset allocation of different investors re v 4.0f2 (Up year leveraged fund earned portion transferred to cash 30% Video 00466

You don't need to pay attention to the previous statement that borrowing should not exceed 20% of assets, which is the approximate estimated risk control before the Exc e l file simulation of asset allocation pledge borrowing has not been done in the past.

After our simulation, once the safe asset allocation has been done in accordance with the way we simulated it, the asset will automatically navigate, regardless of the debt-to-asset ratio, as we simulate the worst decade from the beginning of 2000 to 2009.

So the point is to pledge a loan! Do a good job of safe asset allocation 4-3-3, rebalance intelligently every year, and use 2% of assets every year (such as your five million assets). Borrow 100,000 a year. Sometimes a little higher is fine.)Just let Asset Allocation auto-navigate.

The following Exc e l is how we simulate secure asset allocation. You can study it, we covered it in the video.

Let me know if you have any questions.

(30%) Simplified version simulates the asset allocation of different investors re v 4.0f2 (Part of the leveraged fund's earnings for the up year transferred to cash 30% Video 00466

https://docs.google.com/file/d/1fCrU_QJj7

a 3OQq zGYo p p m YL31vb i9Yn5/e d it? usp=d oc s lis t_a p i&file typ e =m s e xc e l

• If you want to do a stock pledge, you need to know that you fully understand our asset allocation. We have a lot of cash positions with our asset allocation. The interest you earn on your cash will be more than the amount of interest you lend. Why are you worried about the interest? Please see the contents of our stock pledge clearly before doing stocks, otherwise you will go bankrupt.

• https://docs.google.com/file/d/1KDkMJNEJLdIp7aRbhtPP-FuP2YSEuBo9/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msword

@Lukas_1102

• teacher New Year is good. In mainland China, it is recognized as a Chinese tax resident. Overseas investment needs to pay 20% capital gains tax. Through Hong Kong stock investment QQQ, if you sell profits, you need to pay. Compared with domestic 513100, I personally understand that it should be a better choice. The premium will not reach 10%.

US Debt Development Investment Return on domestic economic investment is much higher than interest payments

• Rolling into the United States after 20 or 30 years of borrowing the interest money used to repay the old is borrowing money that will never be repaid and the purchasing power of currencies continues to depreciate. The purchasing power of 1 million is now half that of 30 years ago. That's how you earn resources around the world. We just have to learn how to take out the flames.

• The debt ceiling could have been raised continuously, and we share the essence of the US government's financial instruments.

You spend 4% of your initial assets first (or as many dividends as you want, with the rest invested in 0056)

Your 0056 dividend amount will increase as dividends are reinvested.

So how much dividend you pay each year, you can spend it all without problems, and if you don't spend it, you can reinvest it and increase the amount of dividend in the future.

When the future 00662 rises to NT $8,000 per share, now more than NT $80, you should know what to do now

• Investment should be successful in controlling emotions first, secondly, understanding history, and thirdly, thinking about the present from the future. Where you're going in the future, you'll know the right direction and the right thing to do.

• When the Nasdaq 100 fund rises to $50,000 a share in the future, now $500 a share, you know what to do now.

• When the future 00662 rises to NT $8,000 a share, now more than NT $80, you should know what to do now.

Hi Teacher James,

• I collected historical data during the typhoon holiday last week and used the asset allocation in 0005 to run the Monte Carlo simulation.

• Some areas are different from backtesting Excel in the course:

• 1. No staking, no maintenance rate issues
• 2. Replace cash positions with SHV data instead of fixed rates
• 3. The year of decline was invested not 2% of the initial asset, but 2% of the total asset peak that had occurred.

• confirmed the historical path and found that it was similar to the result of retesting Excel, so the whole process should be OK.

The link under is a simulated graph, and the gap between 2000-2023 or 2002-2023 as the sampling population is not small, but the trend is basically the same.

• https://tinyurl.com/3v65xtnn

• https://tinyurl.com/3z885xfu

The results of this simulation are not written down in the text description. Simply put, my experience is that

• In general, buy and hold is paired with rules-based rebalancing. As long as the time is longer, it is certain that the larger the maximum drawdown will be encountered. However, smart rebalancing is very magical to overcome this problem. The final average return CAGR distribution is the same as QQQ, but the MDD is less.

• ② There is no reason why the age reduction rule of 110 should increase the proportion of bonds with age, which is equivalent to blindly lowering the beta. Purely lower CAGR for less MDD for peace of mind.

• ③ Lifecycle If you do it completely, it is basically not much different from all-in QLD, essentially the same as the 110 subtraction rule, and there is no logic to adjust the beta.

• ④ I tried several ways, but unfortunately, there is no way to obtain a smart rebalancing without losing CAGR in the case of beta1.1 or beta1.2, but the practice of reducing MDD.

• ⑤ I want to rebalance in a counter-cyclical way, but without specific numbers, I can't get any useful results.

00498 Asset Allocation and Pledge Strategies: Wealth Management with Autopilot. January 11, 2025 CLEC Investment and Personal Finance Channel

Although the investment is simple, it is not necessary to spend more time on research and simulation like me, but the various findings are still quite fun. Regarding points ④ and ⑤ above, I wonder if the teacher has any suggestions?

After joining the leveraged fund, everyone online has various creative allocation methods or rebalancing strategies. If there is no way to test back and do not run Mo nte Ca rlo s im ula tio n, there are actually many risks due to bias and hindsight. Recently, 2% of netizens proposed to switch to TQQQ in the year of decline. I think it seems to be quite valuable for research. Find a chance to simulate it again!

Thank you for your information, which further increases our confidence in asset allocation and ensures that our asset allocation is indestructible.

• As for the way of counter-cyclicality, it is actually quite difficult. This is related to your investment experience and how to judge the cycle. It is really difficult to use fixed data to study it, so I will share it slowly with you in a video or something, but this is really difficult. Without 40 years of investment experience, it is difficult to see the actual cycle of the stock market.

• Investors who have not been in the market for a long time, even lions and monkeys can't tell the difference, how can they not lose money. I thought I was a goddess and a child prodigy.

If you know that the US dollar is the strongest currency in the world, you must choose to hold US dollars

• If this is the case, if the United States and the United States are so strong, then the investment is of course to hold the index fund of the United States, and the United States is the source of innovative technology, so it is more appropriate to invest in the Nasdaq 100 index fund of the United States, hold the United States, hold the technology of the United States, and hold the progress of mankind.

Things that have a chance of failing, even if there is a 1% chance of success Don't do it

• In terms of investment, in addition to listening to the quotes of successful investors such as Buffett Blind and Peter Lynch, we can also refer to some people who talk about why they have failed to invest.

• Things that have a chance of failing, even if there is a 1% chance of success.

• But many people in the market who have not invested successfully talk about how to invest successfully, so don't waste time. For example, there are some investment teachers, there are also teachers who charge fees, and there are also some science specialists and stock market prodigies.

╖Capitalism, buy an index to get rich╗

Buy when you ╖have the money and go to sleep╗.

╖The power of compounding╗.

The gap between the rich and the rich is' borrowing '.

╖speculation is bankrupt in the market╗.

could have retired with 600,000 a year and 50,000 a month. Borrowed a mortgage and became unable to retire.

• The focus is on mortgage principal and interest repayment. For example, if you borrow 10 million, after the grace period, you have to pay back nearly 60,000 per month, 720,000 per year, 7.2% of 10 million. Our retirement contribution rate is 2% to 4%. This loan lowers the standard of living of retirees and raises risks.

• For example, you have a pension of 30 million and can spend 600,000 a year. If you borrow 10 million more mortgages, your investment assets will become 40 million, 800,000 a year will be available, you will have to repay the loan for 720,000 a year, and only 80,000 a year can be spent, which is the risk of mortgages after retirement.

• could have retired with 600,000 a year and 50,000 a month. Borrowed a mortgage and became unable to retire.

• Unless the asset has 100 million, 2 million can be spent in a year, another 10 million can be borrowed, 2.2 million can be spent in a year, 720,000 loan payments can be removed, 1.48 million can be spent in a year, and loans can be borrowed.

• Rich people can change their money, and rich people who don't want to change their money may go bankrupt before they become rich.

The average person is upside down. The pursuit of wealth, money, fame and power is not the purpose of a lifetime.

• And the most important purpose of your life does not take any time at all.

• It is most sad that a pile of money is too old to know what to do, and fame and power have disappeared.

• The process of seeking a purpose beforehand. From birth to old age and death, how do you think about it first? Later, how to spend money? Money is a tool, not an end.

00498 [Asset Allocation and Pledge Strategies: Wealth Management with Automated Navigation.] January 11, 2025 CLEC Investment & Finance Channel

CLEC Institute of Investment and Financial Education 00451 "Year 2024" Investment First Course: $100 Million Investment Life Lecture December 29, 2023 CLEC Investment and Financial Education Channel https://youtu.be/4FMjmyBpTzw

It is wonderful and joyful when the market rises every day

We have pinned comments in the YouTube comments area, where you can download handouts and other relevant link information

• or email me

• [email protected]

• [email protected]